Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

USD, Economy & Policy

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Excerpted from the March 15 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 334:

As the title suggests I want to talk more and chart a little less this week. We do so much charting and parameter management that I think we are in no danger of falling behind the curve in those areas. The same goes for the indicators and sentiment tools we use. It is all still there, available and ready for use at the drop of a hat.

As for economic data and projections, that too has been an area that in my opinion we have been on top of. Going back to the early 2013 Semiconductor ramp up right on through late 2014’s projections for European exporters due to currency dynamics, we have been on the job and things have been generally according to plans.


Crude Market Forecasts

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The news scams and crude market forecasts are becoming even more crude.
You can read last week’s Bloomberg article quoting the helpful folks at GS here:
Bloomberg: Goldman Says $40 Oil Call May Be Too Low as Demand Surprises

Then, you can enjoy this chart showing what appears to be a nice Distribution Zone, followed by a 10+ sigma, 7-handle move to down.  Please enjoy the custom selected colors:

Crude Reality

Long live 50s!   Errrr…. 40s!

If you really wanna have a blast, join the fun at #RigCountGuesses.

Uncertain Low

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I was saying on Friday morning that in all of the three instances since the start of 2014 when SPX broke back below the 5 DMA within two days, then a new low has been made before new highs were made. I had a look further back and that was also true in 2012 and 2013, though in both instances there was one instance that went on to make short term higher highs before those new lows were made.

That’s a concern for bulls here as SPX tested the lows on Friday but did not make a lower low. This low is therefore uncertain and the rally from it may fail, most likely at the open today, the test of the Thursday high, or a test of the daily middle band.