I have promised my wife that I will fight against my strong natural english tendency to understatement this year, and will at least mention particularly sweet calls that I make when they make target. This is therefore a good time to look back at my first post after Xmas on Monday 28th December where I gave 70% odds that RUT was about to decline 10% into the 1030 area. RUT tagged 1031 yesterday, slightly less than ten trading days after that post, and I’m considering that target made, though I’m not expecting that low to hold long. You can see that post here.
Also worth a mention is my call in the same post that the odds were 50% that SPX would close the year red for the first time ever in a year ending in a 5. Obviously that delivered too, though I’d note that the stat I’d read that SPX had not closed red in a year ending in a 5 since 1875 would have been more impressive if SPX hadn’t been launched 48 years later in 1923. Nonetheless that was still an unbroken string of nine examples that has now been broken. Not the only big stat that was run over last year of course 🙂