Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Today’s weakness in the USD versus the YEN can be viewed as having violated a support line that originated at the Sept 2012 secondary low at 77.13, and which cuts across the price axis today in the vicinity of 120.50.
Inability of USD/YEN to claw its way back above 120.50 increases the likelihood of downside continuation that challenges the prior pullback lows at 118.05/10, and, more importantly, at the Aug 2015 spike low of 116.15.
That would complete a 12-13 month top formation in the aftermath of a four-year bull run, and likely will have major implications for other global financial markets moving forward.
Originally published on MPTrader.com by Mike Paulenoff.
We have been following gentle downtrend channels like this one in SPY on the SPX and Dow for weeks now, along with a sideways channel on NDX. Subscribers were well prepared for yesterday’s drop to the channel bottoms and what I think could be a bounce attempt per support noted on this chart.
MACD and RSI are weak, the trend is down, STO has probably not bottomed after crossing below 80 and OBV is very weak. I think we bounce, but those with bearish conviction will be looking at the moving average cluster (which would fill the gap) or as an extreme, the channel top as limiters.
For those of you who aren’t quite sure whether Slope Plus provides value or not, I wanted to offer this unsolicited email (whose author kindly gave me permission to reprint) to help you in your decision. I’ve made minor edits only to protect the author’s identity and have boldfaced a few items of note.
Just wanted to stop by and say thanks. I just joined Plus this December. I am the one who had the credit card issues. I have been a Slope on and off stalker for a few years. I have a bear market personality so I am not sure if it is wise to hang with bears but the wide knowledge base is amazing. I am not near as witty as the folks there and my knowledge is small so I listen and learn and ignore the snarky stuff.
Background: I am a stay at home mom of 4 boys. I am a science teacher by trade. My boys are now grown (24,23,20,19) and I have been working part-time at an inner city school in Green Bay. The grant is geared to get students that are struggling back on track and graduated. The 4 year grant ended this spring. I am now searching for my next thing to do to make a difference.
However, my family comes first and with two of the boys in the Navy (one in Guam) and one in school in CO I want the flexibility to travel at will. While I was working, I was trading on my days off. I now trade daily if the set up is correct. I day trade with my favorite trade done in minutes. Right now I only trade 1 stock.
2016: This year I would like to become more of a swing trader. Now when I am out of the office I am in cash. I have no desire to hunt through 100s of stocks a day to find the perfect stock and you give us a variety to pick from. I am starting to go through your videos. Anyway, (sorry to be longwinded) the reason for this shout-out is to let you know I jumped in on two of your Dec. picks. SPY and SCTY. I have a small account so went small with OTM options. Between the two trades, I made +3,000. The reason I tell you this is so when people ask is Slope+ worth the money the answer is yes. Listen and learn and smart trades will come.
Here’s today’s swing-trading watch-list:
Long Plains All American Pipeline (PAA)
Yesterday made a lot of progress towards my channel support target in the 1975 SPX area, but it would be rare to see a move straight there unless that support was going to break. The move up from the low yesterday looks like a B wave bounce and the obvious targets are the 38.2% fib retrace in the 2025 area and the 50% fib retrace in the 2035 area. I wouldn’t expect much higher as I’m expecting to see the open breakaway gap into 2043.94 respected on this move. SPX 60min chart: