Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
In Chicago we have a saying – the tape doesn’t lie.
Check out the open interest for the February 2016 option contracts on AAPL prior to earnings today. This snapshot was taken at approximately 11:28AM ET on January 26 (the morning before the earnings release) and AAPL was trading right around $100 at the time. Open interest suggests many permabulls were loading up in the days leading up to Tuesday’s earnings release.
Then, check out the disparity in put option contract volume today. Who knew?
Where will AAPL head on Wednesday? The market maker move was anticipated at roughly +/- $6 above or below that nice round $100 level. What will AAPL do on Wednesday? Who knows.
It was the bearst of times. It was the worst of times.
Heh. OK. Now that we got that out of the way………
Anyway, my portfolio is presently 70% in shorts (70 of them, in fact) and 30% in cash. I am thus “cautiously pessimistic” about the market, in spite of Yellen and Kuroda coming up this week (the AAPL risk has passed, as the stock seems to be simply leaking a little bit lower and is most definitely not inspiring folks about the wonderful earnings season).
Apologies for the very late post today. I had a morning appointment that overran badly, and it’s slower work getting charts done after the markets open and I’m then trading as well as charting.
I mentioned on twitter last night after the close that the bulls narrowly managed to avoid a 5dma three day rule breakdown with a target at a retest of the lows. There was more downside overnight that reached my ideal target on ES at a retest of the 1850 area and ES then reversed back up hard there. There is a strange myth that globex highs and lows always need to be retested soon after. I’ve been watching that for a while and have seen little evidence to support this, and there’s no need to see that here.
If anyone is wondering what the reason is for the nearly 50 point reversal (which is huge) on the ES since last night, ZeroHedge identified it earlier today. I think we’re all quite weary of all things Gartman, but I must be plain on this one point: more than anything else, it’s his writing style that drives me right up the tree. Here’s the excerpt from last night, as quoted by our friends over in Tyler-ville. Please take note of the flowery, faux-elegant language:
This bear run is not over. There is more to be gotten on the downside. If we must put forth a target to the market’ downside we can suggest accepting Goldman Sachs’ latest estimate for earnings by the S&P listed companies of $110-$115 this year. If we apply a still higher than average P/e of 15 compared to the present level, that give us a target to the downside of 1690; a 16 P/e gives us a target of 1800 and in the broad scheme of things those are not illogical targets to the downside.
We shall strongly urge those who are still aggressively long of equities to become less so; we shall urge those who are upon the sidelines and are “punters” rather than long term investors to err obviously on the short side and we shall urge long term investors who’ve been fortunate enough to have gone to the sidelines to do what they can and what they must to convince themselves that things are not yet “cheap” enough to warrant even nibbling at equities. Patience and discretion shall be… as they always are… the far better parts of investment valor.