Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Traders and investors continue to reallocate capital in defensive sectors and GOLD which is in a strong momentum for 4th day in a row, trading at highest level since November ’15. Gold stocks are following momentum in commodity and most of them already broke out of their consolidation periods but one gold stock is lagging and just approaching its potential reversal point at 39 which if broken could reverse its 6 month bearish trend move into 43 area.
Sinisa Persic, CMT
As you may know, certain things get stuck in my craw from time to time because I came from industry, not from the abstract world of stock markets, finance and Keynesian economics. In short, I made stuff and sold stuff. The pressure was always there to get better, more efficient, more employee friendly, more modern. We did well in those regards, starting in the early 80’s.
Along comes a post by Martin Armstrong, the detailed merits of whom I will not debate because I don’t study him closely enough. Suffice it to say that I do not care for the cult-like following that seems to hold he and his computer, Socrates aloft in much the same way I did not care for the cult-like following (of “Comrades in Golden Arms”) that held aloft James Sinclair, by way of whom many people came to know Mr. Armstrong.
Indeed, too many smart people seem to put great weight on Martin Armstrong for the non-guru likes of me to criticize him in general. But I will go by what I read when the material is on a subject that I know about. US Manufacturing is a subject that I know about intimately; politics and associated biases are not. Yesterday, from Armstrong in response to another poor ISM release…
Here’s today’s swing-trading watch-list:
Short Baidu (BIDU)
On January 1st, I gave my Slope Plus members (who, I assure you, are the reason that Slope is here to stay) a post that I figured would let me off the hook for the rest of the year. As I wrote in the post,
” I am terrifically excited about 2016, and if even some of these symbols produce the kinds of price drops I am anticipating, it should make this one post worth an entire year’s worth of Slope Plus subscription fees.”
Even though we aren’t even four full trading days into the year, I thought I’d check on the list to see how it’s doing. Here are the stats:
- 119 of the 125 short ideas are profitable
- The average gain out of all 125 is, as of this moment, +6.56%
- The S&P 500, as of this moment, is down -3.35%, meaning that that my short ideas are about twice as profitable as the S&P 500 would imply.
- The worst loss is symbol FIVE, which is up about 4.6% (meaning a short position would be down that much)
- The best gain is symbol MOD, which is down over 19% (meaning, again, that it’s up over 19% for short-sellers).
- Indeed, a couple dozen of the selections have appreciated double-digit percentages in just the handful of days we’ve had this year.
- Thus, all in all, I’d say the list has done pretty damned well.
For those of you on the fence about Slope Plus, I encourage you to read this post from a member from a couple of days ago. If you’re waiting for a coupon, don’t bother. I’m still charging far less for the service than I should, and I don’t intend to be trotting out coupons in the foreseeable future.
As for you Slope Plus folks, thank you, and congratulations. For everyone else, here’s a link to learn more about the service. I hope to see you there.
A year ago, on the fourth trading day of January 2015 I wrote a post called Suspended Sentence. You can see that post here. In that post I was talking about SPX having lost over 2% in the first three days of January, something that was fairly rare, having only happened eight times in the previous 44 years. Having run the numbers I had determined that if January then closed above the closing print on that third day at 2002.61, then the best case for SPX historically was a flat year. SPX closed under that low and we had a flat year that closed slightly in the red.
Fast forward a year and this setup is now slightly less rare, having now happened nine times in the last 45 years. The close yesterday was at 1990.26 and if SPX closes under that number at the end of January, then of the six that did that previously the best full year performances were 1% and 3% gains, and the remainder were marginally red last year, then down 10% and 11% on the year, and then an impressive 39% down on the year in 2008. I am expecting, and the odds favor two to one that, January will close out under that 1990.26 so we shall see.