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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
“You can fly, you can fly, you can fly” – Peter Pan
It seems that, once again, the stock market rally has taken most by surprise. Yes, the US stock market has been making new all-time highs, and everyone seems to be scratching their heads. In fact, I believe we recently even witnessed a Dow Theory confirmation of this stock market rally.
The common recent expectation was that a Trump win was going to crash the markets. In fact, when the market headed higher against a particular analysts’ expectations, he ridiculously claimed that the current equity market rally is a “manufactured rally” for the sole purpose of allowing big money to “escape the market,” only for Obama to then cause a big crash in the stock market before Trump’s inauguration in order to “hand him as big a mess as possible.” You just can’t make stuff like this up. And, amazingly, there are investors that follow this “analyst,” but clearly with a lot less money now in their pockets.
No retest of the highs yesterday, but I’m still optimistic about seeing that today or Monday. ES and TF both look encouraging for seeing that, though NQ is showing a more bearish lean.
On ES there is a likely bullish triangle forming that should deliver a retest. I have triangle support currently in the 2253.5 area and will be looking for support there if reached. ES Mar 60min chart:
One of my favorite short positions these days is Deckers Outdoor Corporation, which makes those UGGS products (among others, like Teva) to wear on your feet. Oprah is a big fan of UGGS, and whenever I think of this stock, I imagine her groaning out that very phrase (“UGG!”) as she struggles to get each shoe off her wet, stinking feet. But I digress. Its ability to fall hard after topping out engages me, and I simply keep tightening the stop every day.