Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Mr. Wizard’s Epic Post (1 of 3)

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Preface from Tim: Our beloved Mr. Wizard composed an enormous post, long enough to be seen from space. I have broken it up into three roughly equal parts, to be published over the course of the weekend. Hearty thanks to Wiz!

Predicting the S&P

Can We Do Better Than Highly Paid Analysts?

At the end of every year, fund analysts and stock pundits fall all over themselves predicting ever higher and higher prices at where the S&P will close for the coming year. These predictions usually go something as follows: “Our analysts estimate S&P earnings for 2023 will be $240. Coupled with a conservative PE of 17.4, we believe the S&P will close 2023 at 4176.”

So we have an “estimate” for the first number, earnings, and a guess for the second number, the PE multiple. How well do these analysts do?

To be blunt: not very well.


Turning As Expected So Far

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I’m finding it difficult to get back into doing more than one post a week. I shall try hard to get two out next week. (Editor’s note: cough cough cough!)

On SPX a week ago I was looking for a reversal under declining resistance from the all time high, and ideally a decline and high retest to set up a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal. I got the first of those but not the second.

The decline from the high was too large to set up the RSI 5 sell signal and as time goes by, unless we are going to see a break of declining resistance from the all time high, a high retest is looking less likely as soon it might need to break that resistance to retest the current high.