Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
I've been doing some unusual posts of late and I'm extremely busy. I've done a lot of looking at charts and I am going to share them with you. These are positions I've owned for a very long time and have done well in my long term account with. These are all plays that I've mentioned over the last two years. Each of them (with the exception of the last 4) look very similar. I've indicated ones that I actually sold this week, but also have indicated my levels for stops if I still have them. I don't have time for any commentary on any of them, check out the charts and look at the stop levels. If the eft or stock is trading below the level indicated, I'm probably out.
As you know, I expect some sort of resolution to the Greek issue because the ECB cannot let that fail. We will or should get some relief rally, but I think the bond market will immediately attack Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland again, and we'll reface this same scenario and it will really hurt the prospects in the market till late summer or early September when we have some sort of new stimulus.
By the way, the short on RIMM that I've held on and off for a very long time (since mention on April 5th) has worked nicely. I'm out of that trade now. http://goatmug.blogspot.com/2011/04/apple-resting-or-shift-in-play.html (Scary that a long time is a two months isn't it?)
EWZ – BRAZIL
($71.45 – Sell)
ECH – CHILE
$73.62 – SELL
EWC – CANADA
EWM – $14.12
XLI – INDUSTRIALS
UGA – GASOLINE
DBC – COMMODITIES
BX - BLACKSTONE
DEFENSIVE THEMES – NOT SELLING HERE
XLU – UTILITIES
PPA – DEFENSE
XLV – HEALTH CARE
XLP – CONSUMER STAPLES
That's it, no more commentary than that. Be careful and blow out of positions that could crush you. Chances are we get a relief rally this weekend, but it will be short lived and that will be the chance to unload positions that you don't want to have for a long time at lower prices.
Please check out the blog at www.goatmug.blogspot.com I'm got some good things cooking for the weekend.
Frankly, there are so many cross-currents influencing the markets at any given time, uncertainty clearly has the upper hand — even when we think that new information or decisions are alleviating some of the uncertainty.
Case in point: crude oil prices. Is downward pressure positive for equities (for obvious reasons: i.e., the consumer gets a "tax cut"), or negative because it might reflect a serious slow down in U.S. and global economic growth (read: China demand)?
I don't know the answer, but I am leaning towards the latter scenario right now.
Looking at the nearby NYMEX crude oil futures chart we see that prices continue to follow their technical script, which called for a breakdown from the four-week coil pattern towards an optimal target zone of 90.00-88.00.
So far, the plunge from the coil has hit a confirmed low of 92.12 earlier this morning. Barring a sustained climb above 97.25, my pattern and momentum work will continue to point to 90.00-88.00.
Whether or not downward pressure on NYMEX oil (and to a lesser extent Brent) will translate into headwinds for Exxon (XOM), Schlumberger (SLB), ConocoPhillips (COP), Halliburton (HAL), Chevron (CVX) and the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (DUG) remains to be seen.
That said, with the possible exception of CVX, all of the above-mentioned energy names exhibit very toppy intermediate-term chart patterns.
Originally published on MPTrader.com.
Like I've said, we're all FOREX traders now. Actually, we're not even that – – we are Greek Election Predictors now, since it seems that my carefully-selected U.S. equities are dependent upon some obscure vote-of-confidence in the tiny nation of Greece this Sunday. Which will dictate the Euro. Which will in turn dictate the U.S. stock market. Sheesh.
Anyway, here's one possibility early next week if things don't go well: