My fondness for shorts is well-known. This would be more compact as a video, but you're probably video'd out for now, so I'll just toss these to you as images.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Posted to Slope of Hope January 22, 2013:
“Sorry Bulls, but it is about time for the fat lady to start singing.
One of my charts just hit a sell signal. This is the forth time since 2010.
First signal. 11/05/2010, 7 days later SPX down 48 points.
Second signal. 02/18/2011, 17 days later SPX down 86 points.
Third signal 09/14/2012, 42 days later SPX down 112 points.
If this trend continues the next one will be longer and deeper. Good Luck.”
February 26, 2013:
The green line topped out on January 25th at 350 with SPX at 1503.
The second lower top at 315 was on February 19th with SPX at 1530.94.
If the above trend continues this correction should last more than 42 trading days
and the SPX should drop by more than 112 points. Best guess is that the first leg
There's no underlying theme; I just like these charts for shorts:
I can understand bears being jumpy right about now. Here's a song to bolster your spirits from one of my favorite Gilbert & Sullivan light operas. Remember:
For your foes are fierce and ruthless,
False, unnierciful, and truthless;
Young and tender, old and toothless,
All in vain their mercy crave.
ES made a high yesterday with some negative 60min RSI divergence and that high was within the range for a decent double-top. The double-top target is at 1460. ES is rallying at the moment but it looks like a bear flag and I'm assuming more downside soon. There is no positive divergence on the 60min RSI to warn of any low and there's no reason to think that the double-top won't play out further. First resistance in the 1495 area at the double-top valley low and on a break above the 50 HMA is at 1503.75:
If the top part of this chart looks bullish to you, then the stock
market and a sense that all is well in the financial system should not
look bullish to you. The next crisis would be indicated by the long
‘bowl’ shown on the chart turning up hard. Although right now, it just
continues to gently round upward, above a supportive moving average.
Gold, now squarely a ‘risk off’ investment, should follow the curve
ultimately. Over the last 1.5+ years gold has shaken out the herd and
people who counterfeit official money have drawn that herd right back
into ‘risk on’.
It will errr, not end well.