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This week was a strange week for anyone that just started opening
their 401K statements again. For those that are new or been trading for a
few years, this week certainly holds up to what must seem as a “once in
a blue moon” event.
Imagine what this week must be like when seen through the eyes of a
16-year-old day trader that’s accustomed to racking up over 30%
annualized returns. Obviously something must be wrong. If not how else
can the markets go down 2 days in a row? I mean – “OMG!”
My experience with personal computers goes back a long way.
I started using them in 1979. I wrote my first book about computers when I was 16 years old. I went on to write over twenty of them, paying my way through college.
I've owned and used many different computers on many different platforms. I program in a variety of languages – none of them very well – and there probably hasn't been a day in the past 34 years that I haven't had my hands on a computer.
I got to try Windows 8 for the first time yesterday. And, I've got to tell you, it sucks out loud.
It's not that it's unfamiliar; it's not that it takes some getting used to; it's not that I don't know what I'm doing. Its sucks monkey balls.
The interface is horrible and bewildering. I actually went out and paid for a program that makes the interface behave like Windows 7.
To think that Microsoft is betting their future on this piece of whale dung is beyond all comprehension.
The natural gas ETF symbol UNG has lost an amazing 97% of its value since July of 2008. As precipitous as this drop has been, it seems to me that UNG is simply going to keep heading lower. Here's the long-term chart (which doesn't even capture the much higher prices from before):
Looking closer, you can see a "topping" (although I use the word lightly) pattern that presages a continued drop ahead.
ES went lower after the open yesterday, but the positive divergence on the 60min RSI only increased in force and we are now seeing the bounce from that. It is possible that the retracement low is in, but I don’t think so, I have two main scenarios here and both are assuming that a topping pattern is forming that would target the 1460 ES area, which is a decent fit with the main downside targets that I was giving yesterday. The first option is that an H&S is forming, in which case the ideal right shoulder high would be in the 1511 area. The second is that we have seen the first high of an interim double-top, and if we see a confident break over 1511 today this will be my main scenario. That would obviously assume a test of the current highs. Here’s how that looks on the ES 60min chart: