I was going to title this one "Dad, I'm Dating a Negro!", but I figured some of you are sensitive, since I can't even called Bernanke "Shalom" anymore, so I decided against it. Anyway………..
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
I must assume some of you at first blush wondered why in the world I would even touch upon such a topic. It’s a fair question.
The reason is more times than not we believe one thing is driving a
market. Yet, we find the actual drivers aren’t anything we first
considered. Remember when a cellphone was the newest and greatest device
known to man before it was replaced with a smart phone?
Think back to all those great features we enjoyed while continually
adding more at a near breathtaking pace. You, me, and a lot of others
believed those updates or added features were caused by our demand or,
our ability to influence the market of cellphones. After all it’s all
about us. Right? Wrong…
Within days, I’m picking up a Model S (long-since reserved; there’s a one-year wait). I have a deep fondness for Tesla; their founder, Elon Musk, is an incredible entrepreneur; the attention to detail to the product line is Steve Jobsian, and the chart looks poised to break out. I’m going old school and buying a bunch of stock for my kids, getting it in certificate form, and shoving it into a safe deposit box. I think this company has a very bright future ahead.
Just like we
said when Facebook IPO’d, don’t trade it…
We’re saying the
same thing about Twitter.
The following is excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 224:
“Just the Facts”
To once again quote the man I respected more than any other market
professional I have come in contact with, [a late friend], we will list
“just the facts” in order to define a complicated, yet very interesting
period in time.
- Stock sentiment was at an extreme over-bearish level by what
Sentimtrader.com’s data label “dumb money” last summer and as expected, a
continuation rally of the bull market out of 2009 sprung from that
- The rally’s character is currently of one-way momentum compared to its jagged, up and down nerve-racking beginnings.
- The sentiment profile is now opposite to its over-bearish state (by dumb money) at the rally’s beginning.
- The bull remains in full force with a string of 4 sets of major higher highs and higher lows intact out of 2009.
- Major events over the last year included a resolution by the ECB to
bailout insolvent union members, the election in the US of a president
committed to entitlements and credit expansion, the commitment by the US
Fed to use increasingly inflationary policy to manage an economy it
deems below capacity, a Kabuki Dance in service to the pretense that the
Fiscal Cliff ™ debate was anything more than for show, a kicking of the
US debt ceiling can a bit further down the road, Chinese stimulus
operations and the election of a leader in Japan who called out the BOJ
and has committed to stimulating inflation in his country. Have we
missed anything? Yes, there was much more.
- Signs of economic expansion are cropping up in the economy, from the
anecdotal evidence of semiconductor equipment orders we noted last week
to a 53.1 reading on the ISM report to tepid jobs growth.
At the time of writing this post in afternoon trading today (Thursday), the EUR/USD Forex pair is down around 112 pips and up a bit from its low of the day, which is fractionally below the upper 1/3 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3372, as shown on this Weekly chart below.
The next level of support is further down around 13255ish at the former large "diamond" apex. A close below today's low of 1.3369 may send it down to that level, or lower, depending on the markets' risk appetite (or aversion to it) at the moment, on the heels of ECB Chairman Draghi's pre-market press conference today.