Friday morning’s jobs report is a fairly important news event – – – one on the calendar, at least, as opposed to these (ultimately meaningless) missile attack threats from the lunatics in North Korea. I’ll be watching the ES most carefully. It has been in a range for a while, and after it broke out, its ultimate peak was precisely the measured move (see green tints). Suffice it to say, it would be mad for me if we pushed to new lifetime highs.
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There were many comments for my EZ Disaster Guide post yesterday, in which I recounted some of the principal disaster scenarios offered up by a certain blog (which, again, I like very much) but never materialize. Slope’s own Mr. Wizard reminded me of some other “failed failures”, and I’d like to share them here in my own words, with thanks to Wiz:
I have a watchlist in SlopeCharts of 140 symbols that I called PermaRisers. These are stocks which basically seem to go up pretty much forever, irrespective of…………anything. It makes me wonder why there’s an entire industry of financial professionals and advisors (to say nothing of financial bloggers like myself) when it seems everyone could just dump everything into securities like those shown below (click on any of them for a bigger picture and to see what the symbol and company name are). Simply stated, you could put a ruler on the screen diagonally, and the price would never dip beneath it.
The autumn winds blow chilly and cold.
September, I remember…….
A love once new has now grown old.
At this point, I think if North Korea announced an imminent attack, the market wouldn’t even bother going down temporarily. It would simply commence its post-missile buying, since, after two times now, it probably wouldn’t want to bother with a five-hour selloff.
But the third time isn’t here yet; we’re still bouncing higher from the second. We got aggravating close to some serious selling, but the Japanese Yen saved the day. As you can see in the cross-rate below, the US dollar was about to break important support, but boing, it recovered. Until we break 108, things aren’t going to change.
I will make clear at the outset the fond feelings I have for ZeroHedge, which is an incredibly successful blog which makes bad news and gloomy forecasts its speciality.
Appropriately (or ironically) enough, the site launched precisely at the start of the most massive sustained asset appreciation in human history, and of the 7,398 times they’ve predicted Doom, nothing has happened. (No one need remind me of the quote about glass houses).
I gave it a bit of thought, and just off the top of my head, below are some of the mega-events I’ve read about repeatedly over the past eight years, along with their outcomes.
Let me know if I’ve missed any big ones (or upvote anyone who has done so with whom you agree).
The ES has rocketed (which is appropriate, given the missile threats) higher lately, and we’re getting very close to the underbelly of that broken trendline. Umm, if the market wouldn’t mind, this would be a pretty good place to slow down and reverse.