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Even though I’m kind of in the business of trying to predict the future, the one topic that seems to get me face-slapped most easily here on Slope is when I try to do just that: in other words, those times when I try to paint with a broad brush what could be coming in the future. In spite of it, I’m going to do it anyway, and offer up one possible scenario for the months ahead in our world and, thus, equity markets. As is so often said here, “anything could happen”, but just for the hell of it, let’s work with this possible path forward:
(1) The Top Is In: OK, OK, stop yelling. Remember, we’re just playing with one potential scenario. Let’s start off with the assumption that my much-maligned Fibonacci target of 2486.95 was successfully reached last month (intraday high: 2484.04, 99.99%+ of the target price) and that the insane stuff you are reading from commentators such as the bull market will last “forever” and (from Yellen) how we’ll never see another financial crisis in our lifetimes is the very stuff which precedes gargantuan turning points.
On Talk Markets Thursday, The Fly noted that Piper Jaffray had raised its price target on Tesla (TSLA) to $386 per share. Portfolio Armor is currently more bullish than Piper on Tesla; our site estimates shares could hit $413 in 6 months. Historically, actual returns have averaged about 0.3x our site’s potential return estimates though. (more…)