Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Markets Are Virtually Risk-Free

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By Avi Gilburt,

For the last year, I have been looking for what we classify as a wave (3) to strike the 2500SPX region. And, now, we are getting quite close.

Meanwhile, this rally has brought out two camps of market expectations at this juncture, both of which I believe are wearing blinders. We read about those who believe the markets basically have no limit to their upside, and are “virtually risk-free,” and we read those who have “known” that the market will imminently crash during this entire 40% rally since February 2016.

Do you know who Goldilocks is?


Quick Update

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Just a quick update before I head out to dinner.

The first trading day of the month generally leans strongly bullish, but as I mentioned on twitter last night, that’s not the case in August, closing green about 33% historically and with SPX closing down five of the last six.

ES has been trading mainly above the weekly pivot so far this week, but hasn’t yet convincingly converted that to support yet. NQ and TF spent most of yesterday and all of today under their weekly pivots, and if ES/SPX retests the all time high to make the second high of a double top, that should be doable without either NQ or TF breaking back over their weekly pivots. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that retest. (more…)

Dollar Finally Ready to Bounce?

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Every since 2017 began,the US dollar has had the stuffing knocked out of it. I wanted to point out that the dollar, as viewed through symbol UUP, is getting very close to the lowest levels of the past two and a half years. If this double bottom holds, we could get a nice bounce (which would drive down the price of gold in a big hurry). I’m playing this by way of an FXE short (that is, the Euro), which I entered about an hour ago.


When Will the Gods Strike?

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This morning, the POTUS (who I suppose is closely monitoring GLOBEX quotes on the YM) tweeted this out:


My first remark is……….the mainstream media seldom mentions? Actually, no, he’s right. I don’t think anyone in the mainstream media has said word one about equities for the past two or three years. It’s especially bizarre that CNBC makes no mention of the daily lifetime highs, since you would expect them to be kind of focused on it. Its mostly smalltalk and puzzlement as to why Gartman only seems to own three ties.