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I last wrote about the SPX:VIX ratio in my post of October 17. At the time, volatility was creeping higher, as the SPX was making new highs.
As of 2:00 pm today (Wednesday), volatility has continued to rise, as the ratio dropped to just above the critical 200 “New Bull Market” level, as shown on the following SPX:VIX Monthly ratio chart.
Nice trend down for the first half day today. There is still an outstanding H&S target below on NQ in the 5975 area, but the strong support zone on ES in the 2539-43 has been tested with the LOD currently at 2541.5. That is a possible H&S neckline, and if a right shoulder forms the ideal right shoulder high would be in the 2561/2 area.
On the bigger picture the strong daily RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal that fixed on SPX is playing out, and it looks unlikely that will reach the possible near miss target today. That would fit with the possible H&S forming on ES, with would have a target in the 2507-12 area on a conviction break down. That is a decent match with the obvious first trendline support target on SPX, currently in the 2500 area. SPX daily chart:
Having a very good day, for obvious reasons. I’ve got 50 shorts and 12 puts, all of which are profitable. A favorite equity short is Nordson, shown below, which looks like it’s about to U-turn lower once more.
Note the breakout for the triple-short ETF symbol TMV. Our nation is over $20 trillion in debt, and this fantasy that we’re somehow going to pay for it is a pipe dream. Interest rates are going to roll higher as the months and years proceed, destroying debt-holders.
