Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Will The Fed Awaken The Bears Again?

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With the market at all-time highs, we are now approaching another Fed meeting. But, this one will likely provide us with a change in direction for rates, if you believe what most pundits are saying. In fact, there seems to be 100% certainty that the Fed will lower rates. Imagine that . . . the Fed is going to lower rates when the market is at its all-time highs. When was the last time this happened?

While many view a rate cut as being akin to the Fed “blessing” this market rally, history tells us a different story. What is most interesting is that the last time the Fed changed direction in rates near all-time highs was in 2007. And, when the Fed began to lower rates in 2007, it was just before the major stock market melt-down. 

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Beating the Meat

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Boredom has seized the market. I can see it in the ES and NQ, which barely budged for most of the day. I can see it in the comments section, where the usual 100+ comments per post has been replaced with 20 to 30. People are falling asleep at their keyboards as we once again are in Pause mode, waiting for the {ferocious expletives redacted} Fed to do their Kabuki theatre show on Wednesday.

One glimmer of activity has been the story stock that everyone loves to hate, Beyond Meat. Who knows where it’ll wind up, but as I’m typing this, just a few minutes into their conference call, it’s definitely seeing some sinkage (although still insanely highly valued).

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Intraday Insights

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Perhaps you don’t know this, but Silver, Gold, and Diamond members get access to intraday charts in SlopeCharts that go back much, much farther in time than anywhere else (by intraday I mean that instead of one bar equally one day, you can get down to as fine as one bar equaling a single minute of time). I decided to play around with a few of these and share some thoughts.

First I compared the QQQ (in black, below) to the SPY (in blue). No big surprise here – – they tend to move in lockstep, and the QQQ has been outperforming the SPY, as is typical during a strong bull market.

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The Slippery Truth

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Oil is both literally and figuratively the energy behind the world’s economy. Take a good look at what crude oil, natural gas, and energy exploration companies have been doing. You think maybe this sector is trying to tell us something about how the economy is doing that maybe Jerome Powell is unwilling to admit? Of course, being a preening, sycophantic toady can get in the way of being earnest.

Slice of Life

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Interesting morning so far. I haven’t had the time or interest yet to figure out why everything turned on a dime a few minutes after the open and started plunging. I’ve still got my morning paper to enjoy.

In the meanwhile, I’ll mention one of my shorts – Domino’s Pizza. Back when I was in college, Domino’s is what you ate when there was absolutely no other choice whatsoever. Even college kids it was the worst pizza in the world. I’m not sure what happened, but DPZ, the stock, went on to create gains of thousands and thousands of percent. The stock was a complete monster. Recently, however, the monster has started to falter.

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