Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Looking for a Bottom (by Xerxes)

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Everyone and their mother has been chanting “Santa Claus Rally!” since Thanksgiving. I’ll first note that some here have posted that the true Santa Claus Rally is a specific time period AFTER Christmas through January 2 and is supposed to yield some insight into what the next year holds. So just hold on to your Santa sacks until then.

As for what I expect in the first quarter, everyone is looking for this market to bottom and go long. Hell, permabull Fundstrat Tom Lee has to be right some time if he is bullish the entire way down. But one big thing missing before we find a bottom in this market is the combination of “good news is bad/ bad news is worse” reactions. So far, we have had part 1 of that combination, just take a look initial reactions to today’s GDP numbers. But still missing is part 2. We have had this flip flop of expected reactions to most numbers, especially since October. Most reactions to bad numbers have been very optimistic which does not make for good bottom. In fact, it just lends to the murkiness of the short term moves, but overall the bigger move still looks like it is down. I think next earnings season will start to change the mentality a bit.


2022: The Golden Year?

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In 2022 the gold price has started to validate our projection from last December, and 2023 should see a bull move in gold miners emerge for all to see (and one day chase due to FOMO)

Reference 2022: The Golden Year as published on December 30th, 2021.

It’s been touch and go all year but the gold price could be shaking out in support of the admittedly sensational title of that article. Let’s take a checkup, starting with a paragraph from the year ago article.

Pardon the promotional sound of the title. I realize it, and I’m putting it up there anyway. There is a time for temperance and there is a time for promotion. Too many in the gold sphere forget about that first thing when risk is high, and in August, 2020 it was at nosebleed levels.