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The collapse of the long bond must have policy makers very concerned, with the banks not lending, and holding bonds to play the spread for income, marking capital losses on your bonds does not move you forward on your capital ratios. Plus, with the 10 year backing up you can kiss the mortgage and real estate markets bye-bye, further pressuring the banks.
So what to do? Well, nothing like a good scare in the equity markets by strengthening the dollar to take some of the pressure off. Conjecture aside, I am safe in saying the dollar drives all, and the persistent strength is starting to take its toll. Today it (the dollar) hit a swing low, as I understand it, and I became even shorter in my portfolio. Below are some landmarks for me.
I will post some trade ideas after I have a chance to reveiw my charts and filters.
From a big picture weekly chart perspective, the series of higher lows and higher highs off of the October 2008 bear market low at 19.35 is the dominant pattern that underpins the iShares FTSE/China 25 Equity Index (NYSE: FXI) right now. As long as the major up trendline from October 2008 to the present (26 months) remains intact, now at 42.00/05, we will be looking for another loop to the upside towards 49.00-50.00 next.
For those who think Cramer is a permabull, allow me to disabuse you of that notion. He spoke in a meek voice in October 2008 (yeah, that was the month before the NASDAQ bottomed) that people should take their money out of stocks for "5 years." Just sayin'.