Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Although shorting silver has been a fool's errand for many years (said the man who sold his bullion brick at $9 per ounce), I still want to share a few charts. First, this chart of SLV shows the price mashed up against a very long-term price channel.
Second, a chart of the commodity itself, measured over decades, shows we are pushed up against a fan line. In the past, a rapid price ascent pushing against a fanline preceded a hearty fall.
Third, a cautionary chart – below is ZSL (the ultra-short on silver) in percentage terms. It is down something like 95% since its introduction.
Slope is one of the most popular, well-traveled blogs in the world of finance, and it's certainly the one with the most active comments section. Recently, however, there has been some behavior that has been disquieting to female Slopers and, unfortunately, has even caused some to leave the site permanently (Leisa springs to mind, since she was a vital member of the blog).
I am not conscious of any of my own behavior that is encouraging this kind of thing (e.g. posting of provocative avatars, racy links, offensive language), but I haven't been doing enough to curtail it. I want Slope to remain very open, but we should at least have enough decorum to not offend the women here on the blog.
I guess what I'm asking, as politely as I can, is to behave better. It's a lot more fun in here if there's someone besides just me and Iggy.
This may well be my last post until the close. I hate to keep apologizing for my lack of posts in a world where some bloggers do a single post each week, but that's just me.
Anyway, the Brazilian small-cap ETF, which I've mentioned before, looks like a great short, and it's got such a marvelous ticker – BRF. I was already short this but increased my position this morning after the run-up.
With the exception of a couple of days ago, I typically have had good success trading Treasury-bond fund symbol TLT. In spite of getting stung badly on Tuesday, I went long TLT early on Wednesday and enjoyed a good portion of the run-up in price.
As the day neared the close, I decided to reverse my position and short TLT based on a couple of things. First, the surge upward was pushing it back up to an appropriate level for a "lower high" based on the past few weeks of trading, and two, I believe the longer-term prospects for interest rates is higher (and bonds, thus, lower).
As I'm typing this, the bond futures are down nearly half a percent and TLT is down even more. Below is the @ZB chart (which I'm using since TLT isn't open yet), and I've marked with an arrow my short entry point.
What is particularly intriguing to me is that the bonds are down in spite of the Euro being strong. Recently, the correlation between dollar's weakness (and thus the Euro's strength) has been very tight with bonds. But look at how they're parting ways this morning:
This suggests to me that bonds are so weak that even a surging Euro isn't helping them, thus amplifying my bearish disposition toward bonds.
As a closing note, Slope is going to continue to be very quiet until January 3rd. I'm on "vacation" (inasmuch as that means for me), trading has gone from light to almost non-existence, and New Year's is upon us. Suffice it to say posts will continue to be few and far between until next Monday, so thank you for understanding.