Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Ideal Scenario

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The symbol GDX (the miners) is one I follow with probably more interest than any other. It rivals even the /ES for importance, since – for whatever reason – it seems to be the most sensitive indicator with respect to my portfolio (which, ironically, has absolutely nothing at all to do with precious metals or miners).

The GDX broke an extremely important trendline today. I am hoping (for what that's worth – – which is zilch) that the GDX does something along these lines:

0104-GDX

That is, a combination of a gap fill and retracement to the broken trendline, and then All Hell Breaking Loose.

At the moment, I have 99 shorts (all small) and 1 long (kind of big – GLD). I do not intend to keep GLD for long. If something like the above happens, I'll dump it once GDX gets anywhere above $60.

Until then, remember ……..Respect………Forgiveness…………Patience…….Comraderie. We all need that in a big dose right now. Please.

Triple Peak Pressuring GLD (by TheTechTrader)

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The big picture that is evolving in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) shows that yesterday's high at 139.00 represented the third failed attempt to hurdle and sustain above 139.00 during the past eight weeks. Today's sharp gap-down open and downside follow-through (so far) leaves behind a triple peak that is putting increasing pressure on the Nov-Jan support line, which cuts across the price axis today at 134.75.

Let's notice that the rising 50-day moving average also is in the vicinity of the near-term support line, at 134.58, which adds more significance to a violation of the 134.75/50 support area.

If 134.75/50 is violated and sustained, given the pressure exerted by the triple peak, it could trigger an avalanche of selling pressure that drives the GLD towards 130.00-129.80 quickly.

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Originally published on MPTrader.com.

Earth’s Best-Behaved Stock

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I don't touch AutoZone, because its behavior is inscrutable to me. I would point out that a lot of auto stocks (at least those for already-owned cars, like parts shops) are getting beat up today. I guess the logic is that people are buying new cars and don't need to get their clunkers running. All the same, AZO's behavior the past couple of years is one for the books; its trend was incredibly strong and consistent, and it's at the midpoint today.

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The Facebook Bubble

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The past two days, on the front page of the New York Times, the latest investment (from none other than Goldman Sachs) in Facebook is featured. Nominally, the valuation of Facebook is now at $50 billion, a new record, making mid-20s Zuckerberg one of the richest people on the face of the Earth. (I would also note that today's Times also gives Facebook the majority of the front page of the Business section as well).

It wasn't that long ago that I remember passing by the little placard on a small downtown office in Palo Alto looking for people to come work at "TheFacebook.com". I've even seen Zuck downtown a few times back in the days of Prophet (they have hence moved from Palo Alto's little downtown to Stanford Industrial Park). So it's pretty amazing seeing how fast this company, led by this one youngster, has grown.

But, as the graph below indicates, Facebook is now nominally worth more than eBay and Yahoo (by a long shot). I think Facebook is elegantly designed, and it's inconceivable how any firm, no matter how well-funded, could push them off the top of the social networking heap any time in the next decade. But does this valuation make any sense, or is it just the 3,875th bubble we're witnessing in our lifetimes?

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