Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

From the Outside Looking In

By -

Years ago, in high school, I took Latin as my second language. I took it for four years, and although I didn't learn as much as I might have, I do remember the infinitive speculare – from which we get the word speculate – means "to observe."

I have been cursed with noticing things all my life. Perhaps it comes from being an overly visual person, or maybe it's just that I was born an outsider. I have experienced life from the outside looking in, and I have chosen a lifestyle which only exaggerates this circumstance. That is, I have no commute, I don't attend any meetings, I have no reports to submit, no presentations to make, and no peer reviews to write. I just chart, trade, blog, and tend to my family.

Given this, I tend to watch other people much like an alien visitor might (without seeming too intrusive). Most of the time it makes me sad for the human condition. (And this is in Palo Alto; God help me during those rare chances I wind up in a place like Las Vegas, which compels me to find the highest tower I can and leap from it).

Tonight was such a night. Our family schedule is somewhat complex, and it required us to have a profoundly early dinner (4 p.m.) at The Fish Market. Folks who eat dinner at 4 p.m., let's face it, or going to be a little unusual (present company notwithstanding, of course).

I noticed an old woman walk in. She had that quiet dignity and poise of an older woman who, even when eating by herself, wants to look nice for dinner. Soon thereafter, a couple of a similar age (lots of seniors eat early) came in and sat at the table near hers. The gent left for the bathroom, and the woman blew her nose loudly and lengthily.

The man came back to the table. There were two things that struck me about this couple. First, their utter silence. Not a word was exchanged between them. They didn't seem mad at each other. They simply had run out of things to say. Utter, unending, agonizing silence.

The second thing was their facial expressions. The man looked extraordinarily uncomfortable. He rubbed his face with his hands; he stared off in the distance; it seemed he wanted to be anywhere but there. And the woman seemed to keep her eyes closed most of the time. I'm not sure if she was sleepy and resting her eyes, or if she couldn't stand to see the silence. They looked right past each other, and although I can understand not having a lot to say to someone you've known for forty years or more, the consistency of the pained silence could have been made into a full-length, black & white picture called Despair.

Not too long after this, a large woman waddled in to the restaurant. And by "Large", I mean the kind of person who shops at a store whose sizes are:

+ Husky

+ Extra Husky

+ Oh My God, It's Moving Toward Us

She was by herself, and the waitresses showed her to her table. She did not sit down, however. After the waitress left, the woman pulled the entire table away from the bench, made sure the space was wide enough to accommodate her, and then plopped down onto the padded cushion (nearly sending my son, seated farther down the same bench, almost through the ceiling), finally pulling the table yet again toward her. Mission accomplished. Time to eat.

She got out her People magazine and – unpredictably – a canister of some kind of artificial seasoning like Butter Buds or Molly McButter or something along those lines. Why anyone would want to sprinkle dry chemicals onto freshly-made food in order to enhance its flavor is beyond me, but there you have it.

And so this completes the scene. Next to us, the Giant People-Reading, Butter-Buds-Consuming Woman from Another Dimension, and one more table out, the Silent Couple That Winces and Despairs. And I'm able to take all this in without anybody noticing.

If there is a God – and I've lived my life believing there is – I've got to believe he spends a lot of his day disappointed. I don't make these observations out of criticism; far from it. I cringe at many of my own actions, inactions, and self-created circumstances. But I do know there's a reason I've never been tempted to do drugs; my brain is messed up enough as it is. If I turned on, tuned in, and dropped out any more than I already do, I don't think I could make it.


Rumors and the Chart – A Quick Look at BP

By -

The UK rag The Daily Mail broke a story yesterday that Royal Dutch Shell may be quite serious about a buyout of British Petroleum.  This rumor has been quite profitable for my position in BP (follow that and the rest of my portfolio here) – but I think the chart says that more strength is ahead.

My chart notes (click the image for a better view) show that today’s price action topped multi-year resistance going back to 2008.  Remember how bearish 2008 was for stocks?  Nobody was willing to pay more than about $45 for BP from about Sept 2008 through until May 2009.  Then the oil spill knocked BP back down to the 20′s.

But now, the chart says “all that is behind BP.”  The rumors were a nice catalyst this week, but the real reason for higher prices is increased demand for the stock since July!  The chart tells "WHAT" is happening, the headlines may or may not give some explanation as to "WHY".

Thanks for reading, I blog at where you can watch my stock portfolio in real time.

David Kern (@AbjectAvarice)

Always Look to Your Left (by Leaf West)

By -

VS Bruins_Jan3_01I blogged on my site pre-market on January 4th about how the early action in the SPY etf was inside the range of the last swing high and low from the prior day.  That observation brings about an important point that I think many investors /traders miss … that is they don't establish the expected initial trading range for which ever stock they are watching.