Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
Sorry to obsess over Chipotle – – I don't even trade this thing – – but I've got to say, this has got to be one of the strangest charts I've seen. CMG keeps entering what is an incredibly "steady state", particularly lately. This chain of overpriced burrito joints must truly be seen as a risk-free, permanently-growing outfit.
It joins PriceLine and Autozone in the "Tim Has No Idea Why This Stock Keeps Going Up Forever" club.
Or whatever. The stock market keeps grinding higher and everyone hates this market. The bears hate it because it is grinding them to dust. Bulls hate it because they are under invested and would like to go back and invest more. Brokers hate it because there is no action. We are all calling a top for months now and yet nobody has seen a top.
Now that DOW has closed over 13000 and SPX over 1370, do we throw away all the rules of TA, cycle analysis and just believe in the powers of Central Bankers? Buy the F**king dip? I am no bear and I have no problem joining the buy program only if I could convince myself that this time is different. That all the divergences do not matter! That this time is truly different! The path of least resistance is up-ward. So the next we hear is DOW 13500 and SPX 1400.
The 5-Year Weekly chart below shows a comparison of the S&P 500 Index to the VIX. We can see what can happen when price has traded around the levels at which they are currently situated. On each of the past four years, price has spiked rather quickly from these levels by large percentages on the VIX, sending the S&P 500 plunging.
Yet another boring day on equities yesterday with a spike down, low in the first hour and then a grind up for the rest of the day. What were the odds of that? My broken support trendline on SPX from the Dec 19th low crossed the resistance trendline yesterday so I'll now disregard it. Strong rising resistance in the 1378/9 SPX area today:
Data released this morning shows that the selling price of homes continues to decline, as shown on the graph below. Since it's a "leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity," this only adds fuel to the unfolding story of slowing demand/growth in 2012.