Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

HUI Gold Bugs Index – Big Picture Monthly View

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NFTRH175 took an extensive look at the HUI, ranging from a 15 minute (in-day, in-week) short-term management chart to a daily chart, a weekly chart and finally on out to the biggest – and most compelling of pictures – a this monthly chart.

The nearer time frames generally look okay, with some caveats; notably including the over bought, over loved state for the broad US market.  These time frames must be managed on an ongoing basis, but throughout all of the ups and downs, euphoria and agony, there is and has been the monthly chart and its Cup & Handle target of 1000, which has been active since 2010.

Here is an excerpt of the final segment of the precious metals analysis:

Time again for the HUI monthly chart with Cup & Handle and measured upside target.  To this point we have followed the ‘3 Snowmen (888)’ because I think it is a cute way to keep HUI’s huge upside potential on radar. But the target is actually more like 1000. If you are a gold stock bull – and please don’t take my word for it, NFTRH is just one publication with its own viewpoints, among many and disciplined research should consider many different angles – then you probably find this big picture compelling. You view the Handle consolidation (if that is indeed what this is) as an opportunity to be
positioned for that unknowable time in the future that it may break upward.

An easy way to look at this is to put a mental ‘STOP’ just below the confluence of the Handle, the moving averages and the visual shaded support area. So how about this for a range of perspective on the HUI? 15 minutes all the way up to monthly.

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How to Choose Your Own Probability of Success

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Quick Options Primer

I am often asked about how I come up with the probability of success percentage that I refer to in many of my reports and here on the blog.

For those of you new to the blog, I currently trade two options strategies (I hope to add a few more in the coming months). One of my strategies is a directional strategy using short-term overbought/oversold measures based on my high-probability, mean-reversion indicator. I play the strategy by using straight calls and puts.

The other strategy, and indeed my favorite, is the Theta Driver strategy where I sell out-of-the-money vertical spreads with a high probability of success.

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Unprintable Money (by Springheel Jack)

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It really is a funny old world that we live in. The British Pound was hammered overnight when some meeting minutes were released showing that two of the seven members of the British MPC voted for more QE than the others. Why this matters nowadays who knows?

The UK is generally seen as a pillar of fiscal rectitude these days as it is taking steps to rein in government spending and to keep public debt at levels where it might credibly be repaid someday. As a result it has taken quite a bit of criticism from the US and much of the EU, where plans for managing government debt at a sustainable level are being disregarded outside the PIIGS.

On the other hand the UK is currently running deficits of 10% of GDP, and has now printed money to buy UK debt of $350bn, something over a third of all UK government debt currently outstanding. In effect most of the huge deficits run in the last three years have been financed by printing money. That it is seen as a pillar of fiscal rectitude nonetheless speaks volumes about the profligacy of the countries to which it is being compared.

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