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Further to my post of February 11th, the YM, ES & NQ have advanced above the minor support levels that they had formed just before the latest unemployment data was released during pre-market hours on February 3rd. These e-mini futures indices rallied strongly (on high volumes normally seen during market hours, not during the pre-market session) immediately after that data was released before cash markets opened.
The TF also rallied on higher than normal pre-market volumes, but it has failed to advance above pre-market highs set that day.
Another BTFD day. Another world has been saved day. And we have not seen helicopter Ben throwing money in USA yet, I mean directly. He is doing so indirectly by SWAP lines and ECB LTRO. Can you imagine where the indexes will be when Hel-Ben shows up here in USA, giving away free money? You better shed your bear skin and try to think like a bull. Because he will definitely show up.
I enjoy visiting your blog, and can't disagree with your assessment that we're toast as far as our government's fiscal condition goes. I just made and uploaded a video that tries to creatively express the same idea. Enjoy :
I just want to share a couple of charts I was putting together earlier for my own studies that I think may help add some perspective to the current market conditions. It is not extensive and only looks at the past five years, but I would love to hear some feedback and perspectives on these charts. I, like many, have had a rough time in the face of this relentless trend that doesn't seem to end. Admittedly, I got short too early, but what seemed to fit the bill for recent trading activity which resulted in some rule adjustment to account for these drawn out moves. Obviously, I have not mastered trading what I see over my personal sentiment about it. That said, isn't this the 14th (or less) longest trading period without a 1% pullback? Does anyone have updated stats on that? I got that from a quote from sentimentrader that Crowder provided Feb 14th. Anyways, on to the charts:
By the time you read this, it may be irrelevant, but it looks like the IWM has executed a gap-fill this morning. For me, it was another eye-rolling experience: a glorious early-morning profit, chipped away quickly by the insufferable BTFD crowd. This kind of thing is bad for the soul. I'm more than a little sick of it.
I've been hearing a lot of talk over the last two weeks about how it's bad to call tops or bottoms, and that the SPX may get to the moon before we see a meaningful reversal. That's a view certainly, but there are a couple of points to make about that view. The first is that buying low and selling high is about not blindly buying trends. When you've seen a strong uptrend and you're in overbought territory you should look for some reversal, just as you should after a strong downtrend in oversold territory.
The second is that more than anything else I am a trendline analyst, and I look for short term reversals at trendline support and resistance, and bigger reversals when trendlines break. That doesn't always deliver the goods, but it delivers them a lot of the time, and SPX is currently showing trendline weakness, on negative RSI divergence, at major long term resistance. That is an obvious level to see a reversal of whatever degree. It might not be a major top, but it may well be a minor one.