Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Greco-Roman Wrestling

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It may sound odd for someone like me, but I'm glad the Greek vote passed. If it had failed, someone would have come up with some dumb-ass plan to "save" everything and undo the vote. As it is now, the bulls got precisely what they wanted. The Greek people have been sold up the river. So all the good news that can be had is already out there. Lap it up. Because there's not a doubt in my mind that Greece is ultimatley doomed, and the Euro is going to be drowning in due time.

Below is the "everything is saved and everything's going to be great again!" rally…..

0211-euro

Bears Beware! Bulls Beware!

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Further to my last post, I'd offer a caution to bears from getting over-eager on shorting the equity markets while they remain above minor support levels that the YM, ES, NQ & TF had established just before the latest unemployment data was released during pre-market hours on February 3rd. These e-mini futures markets rallied strongly (on nearly-normal-market-hour volumes, which I thought was unusually high) immediately after this data was released before cash markets opened.

Based on this "unusual pre-market volume" surge factor, I'd submit that short-term support sits at those "pre-release levels." Overlayed on the 4-Hour charts below is a Fibonacci retracement taken from the January lows to the current highs, as well as Bollinger Bands, 50 sma (red) and 200 sma (pink).

As can be seen, the YM, ES and NQ have not yet re-tested that "pre-release level," while the TF almost has and closed just above on Friday. This level for the YM and ES sits roughly in line with the 33% level (yellow) (12671 and 1322, respectively)…although it's not a traditional Fibonacci level, it represents the upper one-third marker of the rally for that defined time period and has merit as an area of support. The level for the NQ and TF sits roughly in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci level (light pink) (2503 and 808.50, respectively).

Until this "pre-release level" is crossed with conviction on decent volumes and held to the downside, I'd say it offers short-term support for these e-mini futures indices. Based on this analysis and the defining parameters, the "given" for any support levels beneath that level would be represented by subsequent Fibonacci levels, as shown.

On the flip side, any further advance above this level on decreasing volumes could be a bull trap in-the-making.

 

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