Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Well, after the tiny, tiny, tiny little drop we saw in the market last week, it seems everyone – – even EWI, if you can believe that – – is saying that's the only drop we're going to get for now, and we'll just start heading up again during the last week of March. The biggest "reason" for this is window-dressing (so I guess we can expect AAPL at, what, $700/share by Friday?)
There's a little more room to run higher, sure, but at some point this market is going to have to deal with true exhaustion that lasts more than a single trading session. Let me start off with a few charts that are plausibly sorta-kinda bullish. Maybe.
Crude oil, whose front month is shown below, still has a nicely-formed inverted H&S pattern, and as long as it stays above that horizontal line I've drawn, it's pretty solid. This is probably the most bullish chart on my radar.
We've all been closely watching ZB to make a push back to about 139 or so. It's getting there – – perhaps two or three more trading days will do the job. At the same time, the bearish ETFs such as TMV and TBT (shown below) merit watching as a good long opportunity. I still think it might be a little early, but this is shaping up nicely.
There is always a conflict when you see short term patterns for during trading hours on both an index and its 24 hour futures equivalent. An H&S pattern completed the head on SPX and ES yesterday, and there was a clear short term double bottom on both at the lows yesterday. On ES overnight that double-bottom has played out to target, and the H&S is now largely formed. Where does that leave these patterns on SPX? It may be that we will see that right shoulder bounce on SPX this morning, as a sort of echo of the overnight ES move, but for the moment I would treat the ES move as completion of that double bottom, and disregard the setup on SPX. We'll see how that develops this morning.