I just finished reading the best-selling Coming Apart by Charles Murray. I confess to not having heard of the book until I saw it in the store, but the cover of a champagne glass and a crumbled beer can instantly suggested to me that I was going to enjoy this new examination of the United States and its sociological disintegration of the past half-century.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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I feel almost inclined to apologize for the number of times I trot out the gold bugs index analog, but – – well – – I think it's important. Week after week, this analog has held together and strengthened itself. Here's a grid chart comparing the 2005-2008 period (top) to the recent market history (bottom):
There were too many charts to cover in a single post today really so I split off the interesting USD/forex setup into a separate post yesterday that you can see here. As I mentioned there, short term USD is looking as though it may break up and EURUSD looks ready to break down, though it's worth noting that since then EURUSD has made a marginal new low on positive RSI divergence. If EURUSD breaks back above broken rising channel support we may see a decent oversold bounce.
On equities the long setup is looking distinctly shaky short term, and it's worth remembering here that many swings start with a counter-trend spike followed by a bigger move down. On the ES 60min the high on Friday was well short of the IHS target in the 1382 area, but the 60min RSI is showing negative divergence, the initial support trendline from the low broke last night, and we have a short term lower high. I have support at 1360 and strong support at 1351.75. A break below 1351.75 would suggest a retest of last week's lows:
I wrote a post last weekend about GBPUSD, and mentioned at the end of that post, which you can see here, that while USD had not reached my ideal channel retracement target, it might nonetheless be starting to reverse back up to complete the giant IHS forming on it. Since then the declining resistance trendline I highlighted has broken up and retested, and USD is showing what looks likely to be either a double-bottom, if it breaks up here, or the left shoulder and head of a small IHS, if it reverses here. Here's the current setup, and I haven't marked in the possible small IHS forming due to space constraints on the chart: