Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
My post of February 23rd contained data showing a decline in Existing Home Sales and in the Purchase Price of Homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Data released on March 23rd also showed a decline in New Home Sales, as shown on the graph below.
Data released on March 26th shows a further decline (into negative territory) of Pending Home Sales, as shown on the graph below. Since it's a "leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect…renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction," this declining data, along with the declines noted above, do not confirm what the stock markets have been doing.
The stock (and commodity) markets have been going up since 2009, while Existing, New, and Pending Home Sales have basically been stagnant at their 2009 low levels…this is a huge negative divergence.
This is obviously an area that has never been resolved by the Fed's QE 1&2 and Operation Twist programs, nor by the politicians (Republicans and Democrats), since the 2007/08 financial crisis began.
Thanks so much for having invited me, and providing me with the fantastic opportunity to participate in this wonderful & engaging world you have created online. In my humble opinion, the Almighty creator thinks most highly of us, when we ourselves also use our creative capacities, adding to the mystery that is life, and you clearly have done that here.
I regret to inform you, that I have decided to move on, as I can no longer intelligently engage in this faux market. It has gotten so bad at this point, that I simply have lost interest in something which I use to find so intriguing, and which gave me the greatest of pleasure.
I simply am unable to join in with the momo trend followers, whom I believe mistakenly confuse their trading acumen & brilliant timing, with a stock market that has simply been hijacked by the FED & TBTF banks;-)
I fear we will all pay dearly one day soon, for this lack of dignified leadership, mature responsibility & courage, being so consistently recklessly demonstrated by those in positions of trusted authority, when they clearly should know better.
Fortunately, even with the considerable beating I have taken in Q1 of 2012, I still somehow have manged to depart quite a bit ahead since I started in the late Summer of 2008, so I can not complain too much on that score.
Again, thank you very much for letting me participate, and so generously permitting me to share my thoughts as an avid, and enthusiastic SOH guest contributor. I would like to think that a few of my macro market observations / header posts, may have added some color & intrigue to your superior financial blog. I only hope that I have not mislead too many lurkers, with my unorthodox DOOM & BOOM Idiot Savant methodology.
I have nothing but good thought about you, and all the wonderful Slopers that you have attracted to your stimulating blog, and yes that even includes the misguided momo trend following, chart humping, price chasing, Bernanke whores;-)
All the best, and best of luck to all…………perhaps I will see you in the Fall
BDI SOH's Idiot Savant
Let me present to you, Entourage style, an investment idea.
Say a company leverages its entire future on one movie. And this movie opens with the third largest opening weekend of all time. And this movie blows away all box office expectations. And has fantastic critical acclaim. Would this be a company you’d be interested in?