The Year-to-date Daily chart below shows the percentages gained
in 2012 for the S&P 500 Index, the Emerging Markets ETF
(EEM), the Commodities ETF (DBC), and the
Agricultural ETF (DBA).
So far, the SPX has
outperformed, with a gain of 12%, followed by DBA and DBC tied at just under 4%,
and EEM with a gain of just under 3%.
Since the dip in June,
the leaders, percentage-wise, have been DBC and DBA, as shown on the chart
below.
Since the beginning of
August, the DBC and DBA have, generally, levelled out, while the SPX and EEM
rallied hard today (Thursday), and have taken over the lead for percentage
gained in the past five days, as shown on the two charts below.
As can be seen from
the first chart, there is plenty of upside percentage potential for the
remainder of the year for the Commodities, Agriculture, and Emerging
Markets ETFs. They are worth monitoring, along with the SPX, to see
whether the "Risk-On" trade continues in these instruments…with or without
further stimulus from the Fed, who will, no doubt, be keeping an eye on
inflation.
Volatility has dropped over the past
three days, as the SPX:VIX ratio pair bounced back above the
bottom channel, as shown on the Year-to-date Daily chart below.
I would remind you of
the major resistance and support levels on this ratio pair, as mentioned in my post of August 17th, and which are shown on the updated
20-year Monthly chart below. A hold above 85.00 would
support the bull case for a further rally on the SPX as
price potentially retests last month's high and the higher levels achieved prior
to 2008. This is roughly in line with the Apex of the uptrending lower channel
and recent downtrend line shown on the chart above.
