Id like to share a brief post to outline some concepts that I track on a daily basis. I have found these concepts at work in all other issues I have tracked. This particular one pertains to AAPL, the downtrend of late and some features that may be foretelling of a bottom in the stock. Keep in mind this is a continual work in progress. I hope you will find it of some interest, if only to see the inner workings of moving averages in action. I wrote the following on 4-1.
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One day does not make a correction, but certainly a couple of weeks indicates that there is a slowing of the amazing tone deafness of the SPX to the movements in bonds and the emerging markets. Here is our old friend, XLU:$SPY which highlighted that investors were over allocating dollars to the defensive utility sector relative to the SPY.
Even though the SPY continued to move to “all-time highs” XLU began to beat the performance of the market in the last several months. I am now looking for a quick snap fall here over the next week, a display of resilience that powers us up to highs, and then a brutal fall through the summer.
As you look at the chart that I posted many weeks ago, the XLU:SPY was signaling a turn way ahead of this weakness. We’ve been looking for a confirmation. The transports were battered, and perhaps have a bit more to go before reversing higher in the short term
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(Note from Tim: my “free month” of Slope+ is a big hit, but I wanted to move on to a real post; be sure to check out my special offer if you haven’t already; anyway, let me turn the microphone over to Strawberry Blonde…….”)
As of today (Wednesday) at 12:30 pm EST, the TF has broken through and is now trading below this year’s strong uptrending channel, as shown on the 4-Hour chartgrid below of the YM, ES, NQ & TF.
We now see a series of lower lows and highs on the TF, but not yet on the others. Any retest of and failure at the bottom of the channel by the TF will likely produce a drag (and possible pullback/correction) on the other three.
UPDATE 2:00 pm EST — The last swing low of 1552.50 (and uptrend) has now been broken on the ES 4 Hr. as it is approaching the bottom of its channel at 1546ish.
What a day!
I’ll put up a real post later, but I thought I’d celebrate a bit by offering anyone who wants to try Slope+ a free month on the site. You can learn about Slope+ here:
If you have no account on Slope of Hope at all (such as one you use for the comments system), and you are basically signing up from scratch, click here.
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I’ve made a coupon that’s good for the next 24 hours, so enter 624F60A1 where it calls for the coupon code, and voila, the next month is free. Just because.
And now, to make a good day even better, here’s a completely gratuitous picture of Sherilyn Fenn.
The high on SPX yesterday was at 1573, just shy of the intraday 2007 high at 1576.09. I was saying to a friend yesterday morning that the ideal place for a high here, if we are going to see a high here, is at 1576 plus or minus 4, and we hit that yesterday, but ideally we would see the high tested and slightly exceeded. This is the last chance to see a reversal at an established resistance level, as above 1576.09 is blue sky territory.
On ES there were no RSI signals yesterday, but ES is within striking distance of channel resistance in the 1570.5 area, and that is a decent fit with a test of the 2007 high on SPX: