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I’ve been quite prolific lately, so I’m going to take it easy on myself tonight and not do any long post at all. I’ll simply say that the chart of the Brazil ETF, shown below, has broken a trendline, so this is yet another example of a breakdown in the market which, chip by chip, is really starting to wear away.
My own portfolio is 80% committed, with 80 shorts and – – gasp!!! – – one long which is, of course, GDX. We’ll know in a big hurry if I jumped the gun on that one or not!
The last week has been a fright fest for the gold “community”. But these are the financial markets, not a community. There is a world outside of what ever is going on in gold and silver. A macro economic backdrop filled with entwined and correlated assets and markets all trying to form a message when taken as a whole.
Sure, gold – as a monetary metal – is a big one when it comes to macro indications, but what is really important is the great question that has been ping-ponged about for many years now between intellectuals on either side of the debate; inflation or deflation? (more…)
The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight interest rate at 1% today (Wednesday), cut its 2013 economic growth forecast to 1.5% from 2%, and raised its 2014 economic growth forecast to 2.8% from 2.7%.
As I write this at 10:30 am EST, most of the commodities in my list are down and Canada’s TSX Index is down 103.21 from yesterday’s close. Most world market indices are also down. (more…)
The Klingons among us – Yellen and Bernanke – will eventually meet their doom. In the meantime, slice the bulls up, one by one. Take them down, dollar by dollar. The battle will take years, but we will win. The ambulatory Federal tumors are only now beginning to shrink. Sic transit gloria.
I wrote to my Slope+ subscribers yesterday that the surge in prices was definitely NOT a “buying opportunity”, and that I would view 1570 as the target top & line in the sand for the day. Well, it went to 1570.75, so I hope you’ll allow me a tiny bit of slippage
The trendline on the minute bar chart is breathtaking (shown in red below); it followed the price points magnificently; the real question here is whether we’ll take out Wednesday’s low, or Yellen will use the force of her Old Crone Magick to reverse things. I remain cheerfully short.
Oh, and incidentally, the latest LDI reading shows the following: “yesterday [Monday] close was a once a year time to buy a real dip. I bought two more SPY 160 Calls.” – so ignore that at your peril.
There’s little doubt in my mind that this move up from November has topped or is topping out, but the exact form that top will take isn’t yet clear. We would normally see an H&S or double-top form on SPX at this sort of high and to form a double-top would obviously require a retest of the highs. Whether we see that or not is currently also not yet clear, but the declining resistance trendline that would need to be broken to open the path to that retest is very clear, and here it is on the ES 60min chart: