Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Brazilian Breakdown

By -

I’ve been quite prolific lately, so I’m going to take it easy on myself tonight and not do any long post at all. I’ll simply say that the chart of the Brazil ETF, shown below, has broken a trendline, so this is yet another example of a breakdown in the market which, chip by chip, is really starting to wear away.

0417-ewz

My own portfolio is 80% committed, with 80 shorts and – – gasp!!! – – one long which is, of course, GDX. We’ll know in a big hurry if I jumped the gun on that one or not!

Gold and Silver as a Macro Sign Post

By -

The last week has been a fright fest for the gold “community”. But these are the financial markets, not a community. There is a world outside of what ever is going on in gold and silver. A macro economic backdrop filled with entwined and correlated assets and markets all trying to form a message when taken as a whole.

Sure, gold – as a monetary metal – is a big one when it comes to macro indications, but what is really important is the great question that has been ping-ponged about for many years now between intellectuals on either side of the debate; inflation or deflation? (more…)

BOC Maintains Interest Rate & Lowers 2013 Forecast

By -

The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight interest rate at 1% today (Wednesday), cut its 2013 economic growth forecast to 1.5% from 2%, and raised its 2014 economic growth forecast to 2.8% from 2.7%.

As I write this at 10:30 am EST, most of the commodities in my list are down and Canada’s TSX Index is down 103.21 from yesterday’s close. Most world market indices are also down. (more…)

The Perfect Trendline

By -

I wrote to my Slope+ subscribers yesterday that the surge in prices was definitely NOT a “buying opportunity”, and that I would view 1570 as the target top & line in the sand for the day. Well, it went to 1570.75, so I hope you’ll allow me a tiny bit of slippage

The trendline on the minute bar chart is breathtaking (shown in red below); it followed the price points magnificently; the real question here is whether we’ll take out Wednesday’s low, or Yellen will use the force of her Old Crone Magick to reverse things. I remain cheerfully short.

Oh, and incidentally, the latest LDI reading shows the following: “yesterday [Monday] close was a once a year time to buy a real dip. I bought two more SPY 160 Calls.” – so ignore that at your peril.

0417-es

Flogging A Dead Horse

By -

There’s little doubt in my mind that this move up from November has topped or is topping out, but the exact form that top will take isn’t yet clear. We would normally see an H&S or double-top form on SPX at this sort of high and to form a double-top would obviously require a retest of the highs. Whether we see that or not is currently also not yet clear, but the declining resistance trendline that would need to be broken to open the path to that retest is very clear, and here it is on the ES 60min chart:

130417 ES 60min Declining Resistance

(more…)