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On my Tastytrade show recently, I’ve been mentioning how I believe the bears have “the wind at their backs” now. I pondered to myself what precisely what I meant by that phrase, and I wanted to share some thoughts on where my head is at on this topic.
From March 2009 through December 2014, the bulls had the wind at their backs. Early on, it was a full-on gale-force hurricane, provided by the $18 trillion of freshly-minted, asset-inflating “money” provided by the helpful central banks of (a) China (b) Europe (c) Japan (d) the good old US of A.
I posted short term falling wedges on twitter last night, and these are 68% bullish of course. On the 68% bull option I’d be looking for a retest either of the daily middle band in the 1955 area, or on a break above that I’d be looking for a retest of broken rising wedge support, the 50 hour MA, and the 5 day MA, all in the 1969/70 area. SPX 60min chart:
Up one day, down the next. Over and over. Our “toggling” market is still very much intact. Right now feels just like early Monday morning, when an overnight drop had been replaced by strength. Thanks to more horrible economic numbers from China, the ES had been down over 20 points, but as I type this, it’s up over 5 points. On an intraday basis, the market is still quite vulnerable to falling hard on Thursday (exactly a week after Yellen’s press conference caused the market to start its drop, and appropriately enough, on a day when she is scheduled to speak yet again).