Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Wind At Our Backs

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On my Tastytrade show recently, I’ve been mentioning how I believe the bears have “the wind at their backs” now. I pondered to myself what precisely what I meant by that phrase, and I wanted to share some thoughts on where my head is at on this topic.

From March 2009 through December 2014, the bulls had the wind at their backs. Early on, it was a full-on gale-force hurricane, provided by the $18 trillion of freshly-minted, asset-inflating “money” provided by the helpful central banks of (a) China (b) Europe (c) Japan (d) the good old US of A.

(more…)

Bonds Away

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Reuters Poll: Most Primary Dealers See December Rate Hike

In an article late last week (“Wall Street banks eye December forFed liftoff“), Reuters reported the result of its poll of primary dealers on the prospects of a Fed rate hike over the next several months:

Twelve of the 17 primary dealers, or the banks that deal with the Fed directly,polled said they expect the Fed to raise rates in December. Two pegged the date in October, and three in March 2016.

When Interest Rates Rise, Bond Prices Fall (more…)

Another Nightly Reversal

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Up one day, down the next. Over and over. Our “toggling” market is still very much intact. Right now feels just like early Monday morning, when an overnight drop had been replaced by strength. Thanks to more horrible economic numbers from China, the ES had been down over 20 points, but as I type this, it’s up over 5 points. On an intraday basis, the market is still quite vulnerable to falling hard on Thursday (exactly a week after Yellen’s press conference caused the market to start its drop, and appropriately enough, on a day when she is scheduled to speak yet again).

0923-es

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