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According to the amalgamation of ‘Leading Indicators’ to the economy, it is time for a rate hike. Here is the graph of LI and Fed Funds, from Wisdom Tree’s post on the subject.
It is and has been also time to hike based on employment numbers. This was supposed to be the last thing to get squared away before normalization, wasn’t it? LI is thought to lead inflation in the economy, which has thus far been held in check by a global deflation that is devouring funny munny sprayed from global policy hoses.
Last Friday morning, my heart sank when I read Gartman had flip-flopped to bearish in “catholic terms” (whatever that means), and his actionable suggestion was to short the S&P futures.
As required by federal statute, the market immediately exploded higher, and I was worried just how long it would keep going (well, more specifically, I was wondering when Gartman would flip-flop again, allowing us bears a chance at making money once more).
I am personally not yet convinced an ultimate bull market top is in despite the obvious similarities of the recent interim top to 2007 [the first sign in this regard would be a loss of the October 2014 and August 2015 lows]. It could also be a 1998 clone, as we have noted by chart similarities and by global financial similarities (China/Asia). However, in 2007 the stock market did a good job of forecasting the coming “Great Recession” (a sanitized way of saying ‘impulsive unwinding of leverage’). Here is what economists think today (ref. Bloomberg article): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/here-s-when-economists-expect-to-see-the-next-u-s-recession. 2018 it is, according to a majority of buttoned down dart throwers.
What were they saying in December 2007? Let’s take a look, also from Bloomberg…
I have no great love for triangles, as I’ve mentioned a few times before, and this year has produced a bumper crop across the equity indices, which is tiresome. We’ve been kicking around in the current one for three weeks now, and as ever, it has been an annoying bore.
So where do we start this week? Well everyone seems convinced that SPX is going to break up to a retest in the 2020-40 area, and I’m still very doubtful about that for two main reasons:
1. My 5DMA stat requires a retest of the 1911 low before a break of the last 1988 low. Could the stat fail to deliver here? Yes, any historical stat can fail, but having seen dozens of these 5DMA Three Day Rule setups since the start of 2007 I have yet to see one fail, and I’m not seeing any compelling reason to think as yet that the first fail will be here. From an odds perspective, if fifty solo lemmings leap off a cliff and drown, then the working assumption for the fifty first lemming leaping off the cliff should be that it will drown too. That isn’t destiny, that’s just math. As ever there is a possibility that it could go the other way, but most likely it won’t.