Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
NFTRH 404 deviated from the usual format of widespread, in-depth coverage of US and global markets, precious metals and commodities in order to focus on two main themes. One was a view of building short-term risks in the gold market (possibly pending new rally highs) and the other of a developing bullish phase in the US stock market. We reproduce part of that segment here…
More on the ‘Breadth Thrust’ and Market Internals
Ref. Breadth Thrust: Prelude to a Crash? (July 12)
Subscriber ‘LN’ presented a view of the impending ‘breadth thrust’ signal and we both came to the same conclusion; that this is ending action in the stock market. It is at once very bullish and very bearish, depending on time frames. Below is additional information per ‘LN’, who is a financial adviser and thus, not a casual observer. I would also note that both ‘LN’ and I have similar caveats about analogs from the past projecting to the future (they often do not do it well). But for reference (emphasis mine)…
“I went back and looked at 1987 a little closer. I know the price action isn’t going to be identical but I wanted to see if they rhyme at all. (more…)
With the Dow Jones Industrial Average making new all-time-never-before-seen-highs, I thought a look at the Dow Theory as an acid test for the validity of the rally might be worthwhile.
For a brief bit of background, I’m going to paste a few lines from Wikipedia for those that aren’t familiar with Charles Dow or the Dow Theory as it’s known today:
The Dow theory on stock price movement is a form of technical analysis that includes some aspects of sector rotation. The theory was derived from 255 Wall Street Journal editorials written by Charles H. Dow (1851-1902), journalist, founder and first editor of The Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones and Company. Following Dow’s death, William Peter Hamilton, Robert Rhea and E. George Schaefer organized and collectively represented Dow theory, based on Dow’s editorials. Dow himself never used the term Dow theory nor presented it as a trading system.
The Dow Theory can be boiled down to six basic points on stock market movements, each of which is summarized nicely on the Wikipedia page linked above. I’m going to focus on two of the points specifically for this post:
SPX and NDX showed the first significant signs of weakness in a couple of weeks on Friday, with breaks below the support trendlines on decently formed rising wedges from the late June lows. Decent quality 60min RSI 14 sell signals have fixed on both SPX and NDX and that’s promising to deliver some retracement soon, though the swing high may not be in, and I’m still waiting for RUT to join the other two with a trendline support break and negative RSI divergence.
Nonetheless, I think all three indices are likely in a short term topping process here, and am looking for topping patterns to form for a decent retracement of 3% or more starting in the next few days. I’m expecting that to be a dip to buy. SPX 60min chart:
Here’s your swing-trading watch-list:
Long Swift Transportation (SWFT)
Welcome to a new week, everyone. Looking at the intraday chart of the ES, it seems we’ve gone from a “straight up” mode (in green) to another “well, now what?” mode. There’s clearly nothing particularly bearish about this; it’s merely a point of uncertainty which, barring another completely fake, self-serving 37 minute coup d’etat somewhere, is dependent on earnings.