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There are two principal forces that motivate me in my life: (1) my family (2) Slopers, the latter of which is like a much larger version of my family, except that I’ve never really met them.
The former force is compelling me to travel almost nonstop from Friday through Monday. I won’t go into details, but I will have never spent so much time in an airplane in my life. The latter force – – you – – should get some content, which is why, even in the back of an Uber, I am typing this post at this very moment to fulfill my quasi-familial duty while listening to an endless stream of 80s musics from the radio my driver is playing.
The market’s dynamism has been kind of beaten out of it. I’m hoping the forthcoming earnings season will shake things up, preferably to the downside (of course, the potency of “hope” over the past eight years has been, shall we say, spotty). The Dow Jones Composite is, umm, just kind of sitting there.
After the initial decline on Monday the week has been a tug of war between bulls and bears with the bulls trying to break back up over the daily middle band and bears trying to break down through the weekly pivot. As I write neither side has a clear advantage, though the bulls have an edge just because SPX is testing resistance rather than support.
The short term setup here is promising for both bulls and bears. SPX is trying to break over the 50 hour MA and the daily middle band, both currently at 2361. If the 50 hour MA can be broken and converted to support then the short term setup is a small double bottom looking for another test of falling megaphone resistance, currently in the 2376/7 area. If SPX fails at this attempt then this is likely to be a bear flag channel forming, looking for a retest of the retracement lows and likely continuation lower. SPX 60min chart:
In the midst of this insane market day, I thought I’d just trot out a sleepy short idea: O’Reilly Auto Parts, which has been painting out a top for many, many months. I’ve got a big short on this with a very tight stop at 256.68: