Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Consolidation Takes More Time

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I Still Think the Consolidation Takes More Time

By Avi Gilburt,

First published on Saturday April 22 for members of   With the GDX breaking below the 24 level this past week, it has strongly suggested that it is not yet ready for a parabolic run.   And, as I noted during the mid-week update, it even opens the door to another drop below the March lows before the parabolic run begins:

“. . . the issue I have with it is that the high was struck into an a=c target, which most often denotes a corrective rally.  It is for that reason that I wanted to see the .618 extension of that rally hold so that I can continue to view it as an impulsive structure.   But, Fibonacci Pinball suggests that once that .618 extension breaks resoundingly, the greater probabilities shift towards that rally being a corrective rally.  For this reason, I am viewing the yellow count now as a much stronger potential.”

“Moreover, I will note that if we can see a higher high made in the GDX in the coming week, then I can consider the pattern as a leading diagonal up for a wave (i) as modified on the daily chart.  Yes, I know this has gotten more complex than I had wanted, but I am trying to maintain an open mind to the potential I am seeing in the market.”

As of the weekend, my perspective on GDX remains the same.


A Battle Of The Bands

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Yesterday was the third day of a daily upper band ride and was of a stronger type where the daily 2sd (two standard deviations away from the middle band) upper band acted as support and the daily 3sd upper band acted as resistance. The 2sd upper band is currently at 2388 and the 3sd upper band is in the 2404 area, so a retest of the ATH on SPX is under that resistance today. Today’s low was at 2388 and the high so far is at 2398. Unless we see a break back under 2388 with some confidence we may well see that ATH retest today. SPX daily chart:

170426 SPX Daily


Civil Servants

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I really should know better by now, but I still get amazed when I see the obscene salaries that bureaucrats and civic employees get. I can’t imagine anyone less motivated, industrious, or clever than a government employee, and yet thanks to their unions, they get salaries that far exceed the average compensation at Goldman Sachs (or Apple or Google, for that matter). The truth value of these employees is, I am highly confident, about 66% less than they are paid.

There’s a crummy little town near Palo Alto called Redwood City – – it’s a real shithole, except for a few good taco joints – – that spends over $100 million for its government. This is a “city” of 82,000 people, and one glance will show you the largesse that they’ve granted themselves…..



Titillating Tax Tease

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It goes without saying that what has transpired in the market recently has bugged the holy hell out of me. Once again, it seems that a wallet stuff full of cash was resting on the boardwalk deck, and as we bears bent to grab it, a kid behind a corner yanked on the string and the wallet was gone.

Allow me to illustrate by way of the Russell 2000, which only last week looked beautifully poised to enter into a hellstorm of drop-i-tude: