Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
On November 6, we noted in our Mid-Day Markets update that a comparison of the SPY and IWM showed a deterioration in the Russell 2000 small-cap ETF relative to the big-cap SPY. We said that as long as IWM was trading below its 20 DMA at 149.11, we would view it as vulnerable to downside continuation off of its Oct 9 all-time high at 150.58.
We were watching and continue to watch this SPY-IWM relationship closely, as, historically, in the later stages of a bull market, a divergence is very likely. In other words, as a bull market loses steam, small companies lose upside momentum relative to the “go to” mega-capitalized companies. (more…)
Back on October 27th, I did a post with a somewhat hesitant title Harsco May Reverse Off Resistance Trendline. Turns out there was no need to word things so cautiously……….I’ve marked with an arrow the date of the post. Bazinga!
The daily RSI 14 sell signal that I was looking at yesterday fixed at the close, and there are now fixed daily RSI 5 and RSI 14 sell signals on both SPX and ES, though the SPX RSI 5 sell signal may well reach target at the close today. SPX daily chart:
Today is profitable, but God in heaven it’s boring. The buy-the-dip crowd is committed to destroying the market utterly, and as usual the lows of the day were established at the opening bell. So let’s just say my heart’s not really in it.
As a comment cleaner, I’ll just throw out the symbol $HSI which is the Hang Seng Index. It’s near the pre-financial crisis highs of 2007, yet its long-term trendline is broken and it’s mushed right up against the underside of the same line. Just another data point to suggest that weakness lies ahead, although it’s quite apparent such a body of evidence is having trouble against the BTFD mob.