The Central Bank Bull Market ended on January 26, 2018. The new bear market began the same day. It seems almost impossible to believe, but it was only nine trading days ago that the NASDAQ, the last holdout, was at its highest level in human history.
What everyone’s waiting for, of course, is what happens on Monday. Will we bounce? Will we crash? Search me. I’ve offered my own ideas to PLUS members, who keep this blog running.
But the market has utterly changed. Just compare the kind of market we had early in the year (left circle, with absolutely no daily range and no volatility) to what we have now (right circle, utter, unchecked pandemonium). Let’s just say I prefer the latter. A lot.
What’s happened in 2018 so far can be broken out as follows:
GREEN tint – final, desperate spasm of the bull market, dying on the so-called good news of the $1.5 trillion cut Trump handed his billionaire friends.
YELLOW tint – the first plunge, which scared the piss out of everyone.
CYAN tint – the “everything’s fine, don’t worry your pretty little head, just buy the dip – – see? It’s working as usual!” recovery. This was sickening.
MAGENTA tint – the resumption of the bear market, As God Intended.
So if it keeps falling, how far will it fall? What, you think I know? Here, I’ll throw you a bone, but my guess is no better than yours……….if we crash, we go between 2400 and 2500 on the S&P. How about 2472? Sounds good.
I have 71 short positions, every one profitable – – some of them deeply so. If we bounce, we bounce. If we fall, we fall. I believe deeply that we are in a new era now. At last, after all these years of waiting, our national nightmare is finally over. And you have come this far.