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After the huge run-up on Monday, I was deathly concerned that we were in for another month-long grind higher, just like we experienced from February 9th to March 9th. Tuesday’s tumble helped lay that concern to rest.
Let’s just take another look at some big indexes and what they tell us. Let’s first examine the Dow Jones Composite.
I was going to write about this last night, but I didn’t have the balls. Shame on me! But the first stock-market-brag tweet in a while was a very clear signal. I took this screenshot before the close, so the drop was even more dramatic – – – but you get the idea.
Twitter (TWTR) is stuck in between two long-term Fibonacci retracement levels (after nearly tagging and retreating from the 40% Fib) and a downtrending channel, as shown on the following monthly chart.
Momentum had been building since mid-2017, but was capped in mid-February.
It is 29% lower than it was at the close of its first week of its IPO (November 7, 2013), and it has spent more time under water since then, as shown on the weekly chart below.
A drop and hold below 28.00 could see a further decline to 20.00, or lower. Alternatively, a break and hold above 40.00 would be needed to confirm a sustainable price rally.
Since then, it has broken above one downtrend line, popped above its major resistance level of 1200, spiked briefly above its next major downtrend line, only to fall back below, as shown on the following monthly chart.
Momentum is rising tepidly and is above the zero level.
If this index can remain above 1200, while maintaining momentum above zero, we may see a second (possibly successful) trend line breakout attempt. However, I’d like to see a higher swing high made above the December 2016 swing high on momentum to confirm any sustainable rally. Otherwise, a drop and hold below 1200 will likely see a retest of 1080, or lower. (more…)