The Season of Gold

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As I was glancing at posts this morning, I stumbled across this comment over on ZH:


Hmmm! I had never heard of that! So July 5th to October 8th is some kind of sweet spot for gold, eh?

It occurred to me that instead of taking this oh-so-specific anecdote as Gospel, I actually might want to use our own Time Perspective in SlopeCharts to check it out. So here’s what I found:

slopechart GC

Well, 1979 (the top green line) sure had a great second half of the year, but it isn’t screechingly obvious that there’s a sea-change between the midpoint of any given year. So I went to the tabular analysis:


My conclusion? That the above comment is a bunch of nonsense. Indeed, over the long haul, the first half of the year is actually a little better than the second, thanks to the big January gain. So I have no idea what the guy is talking about, but it’s this kind of analysis that can quickly prove or disprove the ramblings on the web.

I still say, however, that gold is the only – – and I mean the only – – asset whose ascent I applaud and whose bullish narrative is logical.

slopechart GC FR M