Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
today shows that Trade Balance in France and Britain is
rather "unbalanced," as France also grapples with an ever-increasing Budget
deficit, as shown on the graphs below. Trade Balance for both countries is well
below the levels of 2007-08-09.
At some point, European stock markets
will recognize and reflect these numbers, in spite of what the ECB's promise (to
provide financial aid through the ESM program) is attempting to accomplish. I
seriously doubt that such a plan, without an immediate enaction of supportive
fiscal, banking and economic reforms, will be sufficient to prop up sagging
European growth in the near-term. At some point, economic fundamentals will
matter to the markets, lest further layers become built on to an
already-shaky "house of cards" foundation.
SB's DISCLAIMER: The information contained within
my posts may not be construed as financial or trading advice. Please do your
own due diligence before engaging in any trading activity.
I have really been hesitant in adding any new positions today to the portfolio. Going short at this point seems like a chaser's mindset, and going long when the VIX is spiking and then consolidating at the highs, doesn't make much sense either.
So outside of getting stopped out of WYNN earlier, I have been sitting on the sidelines for most of today. That doesn't mean I won't ultimately get in, but on a stock like Aetna (shown below), I'm not going to go be aggressive with my entry. Instead, I would like to wait for a pullback to the $42 level first.
On another note, AAPL bouncing nicely off of the morning lows is a positive development for the market, but the market really hasn't responded in terms of price action.
(Editor's Note: Many of you are familiar with Michael Panzner and his book, Financial Armageddon; I was delighted to receive an email from him last night asking if he could contribute to Slope from time to time; here is his first entry………Tim)
Instigated by the breakdown in heavily-weighted constituent Apple,
the Nasdaq-100's index-relative trend has broken below a key uptrend
stretching back to the early-2009 lows. This uptrend has been tested
five times before now, underscoring its significance.
With investors waking up to the reality that expectations surrounding
the industry are very high, especially amid a synchronized global
slowdown—not to mention the fact that technology has become a very
crowded trade—the recent breach lends further weight to my bearish views
on the sector (see here and here).
Needless to say, the risk is high that we will see a mad dash for the exits.
Back in May, as the stock market was heading into its final decline
prior to this year’s seemingly improbable second half rally, I wrote an
article called Dumb Money Sold in May and Went Away.
Later, this view was backed up with positions in global emerging bonds
and markets, global bonds, developed global markets, frontier markets,
technology, energy, rare earths, lithium, silver and gold.
I think AAPL is a great company. My family own three iPads, two iPhones and I've even toyed with the idea of buying one of their desktop computers. A year after the death of Steve Jobs AAPL is looking stronger than ever, with just a minor couple of glitches at the launch of the new iPhone as their competition with Google intensifies. I won't be upgrading the OS on my iPhone until there is a Google Maps app but that is a minor irritation.
As well as an AAPL admirer though I am also a chartist, and my strong belief is that the charts should lead without the chartist imposing any preconceptions on where they should be heading. I therefore posted a couple of charts on 13th September mentioning that the setup on AAPL was looking potentially bearish. You can see that post here. I then wrote follow up posts on 2nd and 4th October talking about the alarming RSI setup on the weekly chart and the retracements that this has always led to in the past, and the possible sloping H&S that was forming on the daily chart. You can see those posts here and here.