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The following four charts show a top-down view of the recent breakdown of the S&P 100 Index (OEX). Each candle on the first chart
represents a 1-month Options Expiry period, the second chart is a Monthly
timeframe, followed by Weekly and Daily charts.
The close-up view on the
Daily (fourth) chart shows that, not only has price broken below an intersecting
uptrend and downtrend support level, but there are also trend breaks on the
Stochastics, MACD, and RSI indicators after negative divergences formed in
relation to a triple top on price. What was support has now become resistance.
If it holds, we'll see further selling, likely to the lower trendline (which is
roughly in line with the 200 sma), or lower. I'll be monitoring these indicators
on the Weekly timeframe to see when they reach an oversold status to check where
price is relative to the Daily 200 sma and lower trendline, and when any
positive divergences begin to form.
I am an avid reader of your distinguished blog specifically dedicated to covering the ongoing developments in the embattled Eurozone. Your take is always well considered, and often ahead of the curve. You are clearly a must read resource for those of us closely following the unfolding events of this fascinating, complex, and in many ways tragic saga. I very much appreciate you graciously sharing your insightful comprehensive work with us, and sincerely thank you.
I too have been in Athens on two disparate occasions during the last four difficult years, and have witnessed for myself the riots & suffering of those most directly affected by the crisis. It is certainly true that the substantial social benefits & national welfare programs offered to the Greek people, were grossly excessive, irresponsible, and utterly unsustainable fiscally. It is equally true that those most responsible for these reckless policy imbalances, have been and will be the least affected by the necessary austerity measures, which must continue to be imposed on the population at large, in order to attempt to rectify the untenable situation. However, along with leadership should come responsibility.
There can be little doubt that the avaricious international banking community was clearly complicit, along with the disgracefully corrupt Greek politicians and high ranking government officials, as well as many of the Ionian elites at the highest levels of society, in the near total abrogation of their authoritative responsibilities. They completely failed the common man, who understandably counted on them for proper sustainable governance. Simply put, the provincial woman on the streets of Athens pushing her Gyro cart up the steep hills of Kolonaki, is certainly less responsible for the lamentable state of affairs her beloved country finds itself in, than those whom should have clearly known better.
Yet, today she is being asked to bare the brunt of the terribly onerous predicament her Nation is suffering through. The EZ bankers need to quickly step up to the plate here, and offer greater forbearance for their own egregious culpability in this Greek tragedy. After all, if you are going to demand harsh self sacrifice from the bottom / middle of society, you best show the example at the top, particularly if you want the riots to stop.
It is simply not acceptable to force feed all the sovereigns' financial resources into the EFSF/ESM/OMT bailout mechanisms, in order to desperately ressistate what is essentially a failed and broken EU banking & monetary regime. The EU financial system has to be soundly restructured and reconfigured for the long haul, and the people of the Eurozone must have the final say on how that is to be done. For in the end, they are the ones footing the bill, not the floundering banks.
Sorry for the rant;-)
Thank you again for sharing your fine informative work.