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So far, so good; the three days this week have each produced nice profits, although the trauma of the past four years keeps me somewhat on the defensive (although I haven't touched a long position in quite some time now). The big risk this week was the FOMC, and they are out of our hair until December 12th (huzzah!), so now all we've got to worry about is AAPL.
It's quite simple, really. If AAPL blows away estimates and somehow creates a zooming stock price, that'll probably do some damage to the bear case; on the other hand, if AAPL disappoints like GOOG did last week, all holy hell is going to break lose.
Starting with crude oil, which has been a favorite of mine since it was in the mid-90s, it has painted out a terrific pattern that has it poised for a drop into the upper 70s.
Looking at a top-down view of the 6 Major Indices, I would note
+ all just below the top of their recent highs
+ Stochastics indicator is in overbought territory, except for DJT & DJU
which is neutral
+ major support is at the bottom Bollinger Band, which, generally, lies in the
vicinity of the Monthly 50 sma (red)
+ while the 50 sma is still (just) above the 200 sma on the SPX, it has
recently crossed below on the ES, so it's now officially under
the bearish influences of a "Death Cross" formation on the Monthly timeframe
Looks like the over-extended bull-run in the RR sector is about to be derailed. CP is one of my favorite shorts in the group and providing what looks like a very objective short entry on today's earnings-induced wedge overthrow (a event typically followed by a sharp move back inside the wedge & a subsequent breakdown of the pattern).
There's quite a bit of positive divergence this morning and on NDX / NQ, this is a very significant level with a strong reversal setup. I posted the chart below on twitter last night showing NQ having made the H&S target yesterday, stalled there at strong support, and the W bottom setup if NQ can manage to get back over 2695. This really is a strong reversal setup and it's worth watching carefully to see what happens here: