Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

My Balloons Have Not Yet Been Taken

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So far, so good; the three days this week have each produced nice profits, although the trauma of the past four years keeps me somewhat on the defensive (although I haven't touched a long position in quite some time now). The big risk this week was the FOMC, and they are out of our hair until December 12th (huzzah!), so now all we've got to worry about is AAPL.

It's quite simple, really. If AAPL blows away estimates and somehow creates a zooming stock price, that'll probably do some damage to the bear case; on the other hand, if AAPL disappoints like GOOG did last week, all holy hell is going to break lose.

Starting with crude oil, which has been a favorite of mine since it was in the mid-90s, it has painted out a terrific pattern that has it poised for a drop into the upper 70s.

1024-FINALCL

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Monthly/Weekly/Daily Cycles on Major Indices (by SB)

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Looking at a top-down view of the 6 Major Indices, I would note
the following.

Monthly View

  • + all just below the top of their recent highs
  • + Stochastics indicator is in overbought territory, except for DJT & DJU
    which is neutral
  • + major support is at the bottom Bollinger Band, which, generally, lies in the
    vicinity of the Monthly 50 sma (red)
  • + while the 50 sma is still (just) above the 200 sma on the SPX, it has
    recently crossed below on the ES, so it's now officially under
    the bearish influences of a "Death Cross" formation on the
    Monthly timeframe


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Positive Divergences (by Springheel Jack)

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There's quite a bit of positive divergence this morning and on NDX / NQ, this is a very significant level with a strong reversal setup. I posted the chart below on twitter last night showing NQ having made the H&S target yesterday, stalled there at strong support, and the W bottom setup if NQ can manage to get back over 2695. This really is a strong reversal setup and it's worth watching carefully to see what happens here:

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