So far, so good; the three days this week have each produced nice profits, although the trauma of the past four years keeps me somewhat on the defensive (although I haven't touched a long position in quite some time now). The big risk this week was the FOMC, and they are out of our hair until December 12th (huzzah!), so now all we've got to worry about is AAPL.

It's quite simple, really. If AAPL blows away estimates and somehow creates a zooming stock price, that'll probably do some damage to the bear case; on the other hand, if AAPL disappoints like GOOG did last week, all holy hell is going to break lose.

Starting with crude oil, which has been a favorite of mine since it was in the mid-90s, it has painted out a terrific pattern that has it poised for a drop into the upper 70s.

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Photo by Toby Ord

The run up and aftermath to the FOMC’s QE announcement last month
brought a surge of bullish optimism to market players – especially those
in the over bought precious metals – that was unsustainable.

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Looking at a top-down view of the 6 Major Indices, I would note
the following.

Monthly View

• + all just below the top of their recent highs
• + Stochastics indicator is in overbought territory, except for DJT & DJU
  which is neutral
• + major support is at the bottom Bollinger Band, which, generally, lies in the
  vicinity of the Monthly 50 sma (red)
• + while the 50 sma is still (just) above the 200 sma on the SPX, it has
  recently crossed below on the ES, so it's now officially under
  the bearish influences of a "Death Cross" formation on the
  Monthly timeframe

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