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Only a government employee could point to a 99.5% failure rate and declare it a success.
Look no farther than my local newspaper this morning: the city of Menlo Park (which is an affluent superb like Palo Alto, but even whiter and more sheltered) spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on equipment to read the license plates of all the cars passing by certain intersections. (We’ll set aside the creepiness of the surveillance and just focus on the economics here.)
My “try to be a partial bull” yesterday blew up in my face. Not to be vanquished, I gave it another go today, and it’s working out (so far!) My best winners have been XOP and XME, and I’ve got a smattering of other long positions. In addition, I’ve trimmed back substantially on my shorts.
Having said that, let me be really, really clear: I think the Short Setup of 2015 is coming soon. I intend to hang on to these longs for a while, but they are, ironically, going to be my short signal when they reach their targets (well, let’s be humble – – IF they reach their targets).
One other helpful chart that I think will be the “all clear” for bears is JNK, shown below. If we can hack our way back to the level shown (and perhaps tomorrow’s Fed meeting will do the trick – who knows………) I intend to be obscenely and pornographically short. Until then, I’m in a relatively “balanced” portfolio, and crude oil in particular is being very helpful right now.
SPX made the first of my remaining three downside targets near the open yesterday when it broke below the H&S target at 2072. The remaining targets are the falling wedge target at 2060 and the weekly lower band, now at 2057.
I was talking about a likely bounce coming soon yesterday morning and a double bottom formed yesterday that should be for that bounce. The target is a 61.8% retracement of the falling channel from the H&S right shoulder. I posted the chart below on twitter last night and hopefully many of you saw that (my twitter handle is shjackcharts). Looking at the overnight action that seems likely to make target today. SPX 5min chart: