Well, here’s another pointless “told ya so” post, regarding my jab at The Container Store back in October 2014. It has lost about two-thirds of its entire market cap since then. I don’t think it’ll exist as a public entity a couple of years from now.
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The main drivers of the large move down in the US Dollar’s DXY index a week ago Thursday (Dec 3) were the European currency pairs with the USD/CAD and USD/JPY mostly sitting out the decline in the DXY index. The GBP/USD was certainly up on Thursday but had very much underperformed the gains that were seen in the DXY Index as a whole.
The picture is even more dramatic if we look at the weekly data which is now in. Viewing an entire week’s worth of data we can see that the European currency pairs accounted for over 98% of the losses in the DXY Index for the week with the EUR/USD accounting for over 85% of the indexes drop. Additionally not only did the USD/JPY and USD/CAD currency pairs end the week fairly flat they had very little movement throughout the entire week as well trading in a very tight range.
I was saying that the odds favored down yesterday morning, and that was a very impressive gap down this morning. So how far is this move likely to go? Well we are looking at a thrust down from a triangle that broke down on Wednesday afternoon, retested broken triangle support yesterday afternoon and is playing out towards target this morning. I have the triangle target in the 1995-2005 area, though triangles aren’t as good at making target as most patterns, and there have been a couple of early turns on triangle thrusts recently. I do have a trendline target in the 1995-2000 area though, and that favors this triangle making that target.
After the triangle thrust completes there should then be a full retracement back into yesterday’s high at 2067, and if we see a bounce at my trendline support target then that should continue up into at least a retest of the 2100 area. I’ll be watching for that turn back up. SPX 60min chart: