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Below are Weekly charts during a one-year time period of Gold, Oil, Copper and Silver with Bollinger Bands, 50 sma (red), monthly Volume Profiles (horizontal yellow lines are POC), and a one-year Volume Profile at the right edge (red horizontal line is POC).
While Oil pulled back this past week to confluence support, Gold, Copper and Silver rallied. For this time frame, if Copper and Silver continue to rally, they will be returning to their "mean" (50 sma and one-year POC), and if Gold and Oil rally, they will be adding risk by moving away from their "mean." Volumes were higher last week, and potential targets on the upside are mid-to upper Bollinger Band, as follows:
Just a quick reminder of the SPY Guessing Contest! Closing soon! Here is the recap of contest and prizes!
SPY Guessing Contest!
As has become the tradition there is another SPY Guessing Contest with even better prizes!
Rules: Open to all regardless if you are a lurker, a regular/irregular poster, plan to attend slopefest/do not plan to attend slopefest. The closest to the SPY ETF closing price on Friday, May 11, 2012 shall be the winner. You can be right on the final price, under it or over it. Closest wins! In the unlikely event of a tie, the person who has submitted their “guesstimate” the earliest will be declared the winner. So, get your “guesstimate” in early! Contest cut-off for submission of entries shall be midnight EST, January 16, 2012.
Prizes: 1st Place: 1/10th ounce Krugerrand gold coin (yes, they do mint those!). 2nd Place: two (2) 1 ounce Silver Eagles minted by the United States. 3rd Place: a nice, crisp, selection of Wiemar German Notgeld Notes. For those of you unfamiliar with just what those are: http://www.notgeld.com/ So, send in your SPY “guesstimates” to: email@example.com !! If for some reason, the link does not work, just copy and paste. We had a problem with that on the last post!
PS..For those few who do not know it, my new site, devoted to the swing trader, is up and ready for your consideration. Meant to be a resource for visitors as well as subscribers. Take a look! http://www.masterswingtraders.com/
If a fifteen hour non-stop flight is not enough to tire out anyone, I had to deal with a snow storm in the morning and two hour drive back to hotel. But after a twelve hour rest, here I am, catching up with what happened while I was in transit.
Happy New Year! It may not be Open Season, but we are approaching January Opex Season. We bring you another episode in our fun game of Math-You-Won’t-Find-Anywhere-Else, only this time it’s Opex Seasonality.
We compiled data from our Personal Trading Almanac to build a profile of how the major indexes perform on average each options expiration week. The data goes back 22 years and sniffs out the opex week price action from more than 5,500 data points.
What’s interesting is that January Opex has one of the few bearish opex week tendencies of the year. Over the past 22 years, the S&P 500s closed opex week in negative territory 63% of the time. Of course, this year can very well be different. Employment is stabilizing, the markets are shrugging off Euro debt zones, and it’s an election year. But for those about to short, stay thirsty my friends…