Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Bottom of Lower Range
Well, I'm not the least bit surprised the lows of the day were established very early on. As I've pointed out multiple times, we're in a wide range (1350 to 1390) split into two parts (1350 to 1370 and 1370 to 1390). These are rough figures, obviously, but within 2 points plus or minus in any direction.
I'm pleased how I traded this morning. I sold my GDX puts, covered my SPY, MDY, and GDX shorts (as well as various and sundry others) and otherwise tightened up my stops. My little options account has grown 40% in the six days I've been trading it (although this is obviously a "flier" account and has nothing to do with my real portfolio, which is wayyyyyyyyyyy more conservative).
My intermediate-term goal remains something close to 1300 (maybe even a skosh below), but for now, I'm taking things nice and easy. It would take just ONE event – – like, oh, say, an AAPL surprise – – to smack the bulls upside the head and get us under that 1350 level. But that event hasn't happened yet, and I'm not going to get aggressive until it does.
Contraction in Europe
Data released on April 23rd shows contraction in Manufacturing and Services in Europe, Services in France, and Manufacturing in Germany, as shown below.
World markets are down hard as I'm writing this during market hours Monday morning.
Equities Looking Weak Here (by Springheel Jack)
I posted a possible bear flag on the ES 15min on Friday morning. It broke down during the day and has played out to within a couple of points of the flag target overnight. We might see a bounce here with some positive RSI divergence on the oversold 5 & 15min charts. If we see that then I have short term declining resistance in the 1367.50 area and that would be the initial target:
I was glancing at charts Sunday morning – – – my form of worship service – – – and was awestruck at how primed everything seemed to be to fall. When I haven't looked at charts for 36 hours (which, for me, is a marathon) I permit myself to look at things afresh. Even though I was already 75% committed and totally short with 71 positions, all I could think was how much shorter I wanted to be.
When the market opened Sunday afternoon and bobbled around between -3 and -0.25, it certainly didn't seem like things were rocking and rolling yet, but in general I liked the feel of the market's action.
Imagine how pleased I was to glare at my iPad at 4 this morning and see the ES down 14 points and bonds zipping higher.
Of course, over the next 50 hours, two huge events loom – AAPL's earnings after the close Tuesday and the Satanic Gathering of the Evil Tribe (Bernanke & Yellen) Tues/Wed with a press conference. Since the market's laughable and utterly fictional "dual mandate" will be used as an excuse to do anything, only God knows what beard-face will promise on Wednesday.
In the meantime, I am heartened to see a little bit of Truth be allowed to escape into the light of day, which finds a happy home here on Slope.