Miners Finally Break

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Being a contrarian sucks most of the time, because, well, you're pretty much saying "black" when the rest of the world says "white", and they'll hate you for it.

Of all the broad contrarian calls I've made, few have earned me more wrath than being a miners bear. But precious topped out fifteen MONTHS ago, as did miners, and they've been in a messy, choppy bear market ever since. Today was a pretty big deal, because GDX broke a trendline that has been supporting it since the bottom set in late 2008. That's a big trendline, boys and girls.


While I'm busy beating my chest, allow me to flip myself off at the same time. I rarely trade options, but I had bought some December $55 GDX puts a while back. I got spooked by the strength in miners (and the destruction of my beloved analog) and sold my puts at just about the worst time (see horizontal line), and they are up nearly 200% now. This isn't the first time that my charts have been right and my trading behavior has been wrong, so this is an especially painful chart for me to gaze upon.