Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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It wasn’t that long ago that when I felt like it was a good time to buy gold (that is, real gold you could hold in your hands), I would go out and buy some. But after a while, gold wouldn’t be doing that well, and I’d sort of realize that there was really no scenario in which it would be useful to me (e.g. there would never come a day that everyone was starving since Whole Foods would ONLY accept gold, and I’d be able to feed my family due to my good planning). So I’d dump it.
I thought I’d show when I bought and sold bullion, thinking it would reveal Gartman-like levels of bad timing. It turns out it wasn’t THAT bad. It was sort of bad – – buffoon level, I guess – – but nothing horrendous. Below I marked in green the buy points and in magenta the sell points.
OK, at the moment, I have nothing to say – – but we need a comment cleaner! So I’ll just toss in this cute little SlopeChart to show the correlation between BitCoin and Nvidia. There are a handful of firms which make GPUs, Nvidia being the big swinging dick of the lot, and this chipmaker’s fortune is tied tightly to bitcoin’s. With the nearly 20% smackdown $BTC suffered during the weekend, it’s not that shocking Nvidia would take it on the chin.
If I think of anything non-idiotic to write, I’ll do so later tonight.
The momentum and rate of change indicators have been making a series of lower highs since July 2016 on the Weekly timeframe of the SPX, as shown below. Price has been climbing along the underbelly of a trajectory (beginning in August 2015) set from the 2009 lows to this year’s highs, as shown on the following Monthly chart.
This is the reality, as the next major (potentially) catastrophic and costly storm (Hurricane Irma) is predicted to hit the U.S. in the next few days. Add this fact to the latest provocations by North Korea, as well as to a gridlocked and divided Congress, along with stagnant wage growth, and it’s difficult to endorse sound reasons for a higher stock market in the coming days/weeks.
It’s a very quiet day for me; I’m just tightening up stops and thumbing through lists for new ideas; the symbol below, Axis Capital, is representative of the kinds of “breaks” I am seeing take place, which I believe are representative of some broad reversals happening in some sectors.
Today is going decently so far. I’ve got three October put positions (XRT, AMZN, IWM) which are doing decently, and my short equity portfolio is overall showing a profit. I’m quite light right now, having started the day with 25 positions and currently at 39 (for me, “heavy” is like 80 positions). The uptrend on the ES seems quite plainly broken, and we are obediently remaining beneath the now-broken trendline. Overall, a mellow day.
I was talking in my last post on Wednesday morning about the bull flag channel on SPX that then broke up with a minimum target at a retest of the all time high, and that is still unfinished business above that should be hit, subject of course to a negative development in the ongoing megalomaniac sociopath with an H-Bomb news stream. SPX 60min chart:
NDX made all upside targets last week at the retest of the all time high, but there’s still an open RSI 14 buy signal on the RUT daily chart that is likely to deliver some more upside and may deliver an all time high retest there of course. RUT daily chart:
The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done an hour before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.
The key level on ES this week is clearly 2458.25, with both the new weekly and monthly pivots at that exact number this week. The action since the news gap down looks like a small bear flag forming so the odds are decent that level will be tested today or tomorrow. ES Sep 60min chart:
Similar setup on NQ with the same broken rising wedge and short term, likely bear flag forming. Again weekly and monthly pivot are close and in effect action as double support. NQ Sep 60min chart:
There is still an open 60min sell signal on TF, but I’m doubtful about that reaching the weekly and monthly pivot support area there. TF Sep 60min chart:
The pattern setup here is a clear retracement with unfinished business above, news permitting of course. Ideally that delivers a test of 2458.25 ES today that holds, give or take three or four handles, and then delivers the all time high retest later this week or early next week. I’m assuming that we see that retest until demonstrated otherwise but I’m not expecting much more than that. Hopefully that gets clearer on the way there.
Stan and I did our monthly free public Chart Chat webinar at theartofchart.net on Sunday,and if you would like to see the recording then you can see that on our September Free Webinars page. This week’s edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 205% in the ten months to August 31st, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we’re thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That’s a free weekly service and if you trade futures I’d suggest adding it to your reading list.
As the latest tempest-in-a-teapot from the Kim clan has been brewing during the long weekend, those of us who have become cynical about the abilities of the market to fall based on ANY kind of news have been confirmed. Because in spite of a mildly decent dip in the dollar…….