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Hello, Slopers. I’m typing this late on Tuesday night. At the risk of unnecessarily embarrassing myself, I’ll go ahead and apologize for having some downtime Tuesday evening. Not to drill down into the gory details, but we were upgrading our security certificate (SSL) since we have a few “edge” cases (like folks on mobile phones) where the SSL wasn’t working. Well, a nuclear bomb pretty much went off, and after some very intense work, we were back in business again. But I deeply apologize for anyone who was wondering where the site was Tuesday night.
So as for the markets, what’s absolutely crucial is bonds. I keep saying that, I know, but it’s only because I believe it so deeply. As horrible as the past week has been for bond bears like myself, NOTHING has altered my big picture view. The topping pattern is huge, and the long-term trendline is broken. Period. End of story.
Interesting setup on SPX here as the holiday week begins. SPX is now testing the larger double top support that I was looking at last week and has broken slightly below double top support at the open. From here there are only two high probability options.
The first option is that SPX continues down towards the double top target in the 2661.50 area. A sustained break below 2690 from here likely seals that for the bears. The second option here is that the double top fails and rejects at the break. That’s what I would call a Janus bull flag setup, and the target would be a full retest of the May high at 2742.24. A strong break back over weekly pivot on SPX at 2723.65 likely seals this for the bulls, though by that stage SPX would be most of the way back to 2742.24 of course. As a general rule I’d expect to see one or the other target reached this week.
Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF, and CL, NG, GC, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD: (more…)
Having gone to bed after writing last night’s post, I woke up at 2 a.m. and glanced at the iPad permanently placed at my bedside. I was very surprised to see – – well – – just about everything. For one, there was an absolutely huge spike in bonds (green tint) which, as I am typing this now, has almost totally faded.